Trends In Commodities

The mid-term Elections and the status quo.

2010-10-21T07:00:00.000-07:00

We are fast approaching the mid-term elections on November 2nd and, from everything that I’ve seen, nothing will change after the dust has settled. The headlock that the Democrats and Republicans (two political parties that are entirely interchangeable) will remain and Americans will simply replace one tax-and-spend politician, looking to line his or her pockets with money and power, with another. The Libertarian candidates across the country, over 800 strong, have once again been almost completely ignored. Nothing’s changed. America is a country of addicts, addicted to fighting for the crumbs that our government offers them in exchange for keeping their good ship “Duopoly” afloat. This is the end result of generations being taught by government controlled schools and the union-backed teachers in them. “The road to hell is paved with good intentions.” We’re firmly on that road and the dead end that we’re rapidly approaching will be the necessary event that will finally shake Americans out of their drunken stupor and realize that, for nearly 50 years, we’ve been selling our souls to the devil and now the devil is here to collect the “balloon payment” on the note. If you think the last 4 years have been rough, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet!

Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Technician

Dennis Gartman is an idiot!

2010-08-18T14:38:00.000-07:00

I could never figure out why market analysts or advisors feel compelled to make statements about tops or bottoms in markets. 99% of the time, they're dead wrong. Dennis Gartman recently told his "clients" to sell all of their Gold. I looked at the charts, the moving averages, Fibonacci numbers, just about everything I could think of, and I couldn't find any justification for Mr. Gartman's statement. So, I told my clients to ignore this nonsense and stay the course. Now, Dennis was right short-term because Gold did see a retracement to close to the 200-day MA. But the closer Gold got to that support area, the more I recommended that Gold be BOUGHT. The market is currently trading at 1229.1 and is about $35 below the all-time high. I don't make predictions about markets or prices but, after being bullish on Gold for over 6 years, I see no reason to change my position now. How high can Gold go? $1350? $1500? 2000? Higher? I don't know. Only time will tell.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Is this the top?

2009-11-18T07:42:00.000-08:00

By my analysis, this looks like a short-term top in the Precious metals and the Stock index futures markets. The NQZ9 needs a close below 1791.50 to turn the short-term trend negative. The YMZ9 needs a close below 10329 to turn its short-term trend negative. The high is already in place in the EURO and the DEC GOLD futures contract needs a close below 1043.80 to turn negative. I expect all of these events to occur before the end of the trading week. Stay tuned!

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Almost Golden!

2009-05-12T07:10:00.001-07:00

This was posted to the Bullion.com blog on Monday, May 11th.

Last week's market action saw a breakout in the June Gold futures as Gold made a new one-month high at $926.50 on 5/7. I was all ready to put out an alert to BUY but I needed to see confirmation that the new high would hold and, of course, it didn't. Don't get me wrong here. I'm still very bullish on the entire Precious metals complex and here's why. The June contract closed back above the 20-day MA on Tuesday and has remained there. That's a big positive for the longer-term outlook. Looking at the market from a short-term perspective, the hourly chart just shows a market that simply can't gain any traction. With the Dollar having lost 10 cents to the Euro in the last 2 months, it's a bit puzzling that Gold hasn't had a significantly larger move than it's been able to generate. But I've never been sold on the whole Dollar/gold argument and the last 2 months are a perfect example of why I don't buy into the correlation between the Dollar and gold. On March 11th, 2009, the Euro opened at 1.2681 and June Gold opened at $897.80. The Euro has gained just shy of 8% vs. the Dollar while the Gold price has gained slightly more than 2% during the same period. Hardly a rousing example of as the Dollar goes, so goes Gold. Silver, on the other hand, seems to have taken the upper hand as its gain over the same time frame was 11.2%. I've been advocating Silver for quite some time and I still believe that it will continue to outperform Gold on a relative basis as we move into the summer months. A breakout above the February highs would not surprise me in the least.

I would almost go so far as to say that a retest of the February highs is a foregone conclusion. This market has had 7 strong sessions to the upside and, with the only resistance having been overcome, there's only one hurdle left before Silver can set it's sights on $20. So, if you have any questions about my position on Silver let me remove any ambiguity. I'm a "raging bull" on Silver and, should the market take out $14.64 on a closing basis it should launch an all-out assault on the $20 target. Which leads me to my next subject.

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There you have it. Bullion.com is not only your #1 Precious metals resource for information on the markets but it's now your source for buying bullion through our bullion dealer. Just call the toll-free number, 1-800-605-1792, to speak to a representative for pricing on any type of bullion that you may be interested in. It's just that simple. And don't forget to email me at daledoelling@bullion.com if you have any questions regarding the Precious metals markets. If you would prefer to speak to me personally you can call me at 888-453-4614, ext. 2, during normal business hours. I look forward to hearing from you.

Good trading,

Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Analyst

The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation (”SFF-CORP”) and NOT Castello Cities Internet Network, Incorporated. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by SFF-CORP and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Castello Cities Internet Network, Inc. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.

The NQ's top gets popped! But this train may be headed for trouble.

2009-04-06T05:37:00.001-07:00

I talked about the intermarket relationship between stocks and Precious metals last week and pointed out that the NQ (Nasdaq 100) may have been putting in a quadruple top. That top is history, for now. You see, markets have a funny way of hurting as many people as they possibly can. I was focusing on the NQ because it has clearly been the best performer in 2009 of all the major stock indexes. The performance of the S&P and the DOW pales in comparison. Getting back to my analysis, the high in the June NQ had been right around the 1285.00 area in January, February and March. On Thursday the experiment blew up as the NQ broke out of the pattern and made an intraday high of 1310.75 and, more importantly, closed above the 1300 mark. The momentum traders jumped on this breakaway train and that's probably what propelled the NQ to its high of 1327.50 in early trading this morning. But wait just a minute here! The market is trading 20 handles lower as I write this and my expectation for a peak in the first 3 days of this week may just come to fruition. This could be the spark that lifts Gold and Silver off the mat and puts them back in the fight. The following chart on May Silver shows that the low that was made back on 3/18 (11.89 intraday) was most likely a panic selloff that provided strong support for this market over the longer-term. If stocks should begin to tumble, and this morning's action is looking weak, then Silver may be the market to be in. Silver could quite easily rally back to the February highs if investors start to smell a trap in the equities arena.

So, to recap, I remain SHORT the NQ, with the market now down 18.00 handles from Friday's close and, more importantly, below the 1300 level. If this top is for real the NQ will have to break support at 1293.25 on a closing basis. If this should occur, the odds are that the Precious metals will have already begun to show signs that the selloff is finished and that a new leg up is underway. Keep your eye on the MAY SILVER contract as we progress through the week. If the market should break further and begin to approach the $12.00 level I'll simply step in and BUY using the previous low at 11.89 as my stop on a closing basis. This could be the BEST opportunity for being long SILVER since the October lows at 8.65. You need to be ready to act because, as we all know, the best laid plans are worthless without action.

Good trading,

Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation ("SFF-CORP") and are for general informational purposes only. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by SFF-CORP for informational purposes only. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.

Quadruple Top in NQ?

2009-04-03T06:24:00.000-07:00

An abridged version of this article was posted on the Bullion.com blog on April 2, 2009.

The NQ futures contract (NASDAQ 100) made a quadruple top overnight when it rallied to just shy of the previous high made on 2/10 of 1285.25. This morning's high was 1284.00 and, assuming the market doesn't break out and close above 1285.25, this is as close to a sure bet as you'll get when it comes to trading the markets. I'm SHORT the NQ and will remain short until the NQ closes above the resistance that I mentioned. How does this affect the Precious metals markets? Let's look at Gold for a moment. We just had a higher initial jobless claims number this morning and the 4-week moving average rose again aslo. Does this sound like an improving economic condition to you? I'm sure you've heard the joke "How do you know when a politician's lying? His lips are moving!" One of the President's biggest campaign promises went up in smoke yesterday when the largest tax increase in tobacco taxes took effect despite Obama's promise not to raise taxes of any kind on families earning under $250,000. This is one tax that disproportionately affects the poor, who are more likely to smoke than any other class of Americans. Nothing has changed!

It's just after 8:30 AM on Thursday and the April Gold contract is trading down $12.00 at 914.10. I continue to like Gold in the low 900's but with the Employment report set to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM I am compelled to wait until that number is released before I commit to the long side once again.

If you look at the daily chart you can see that the %R oscillator is showing that the market is in a bottoming process. This means that tomorrow's number could put Gold on another rocket shot trajectory or it could mean that the market will break down to the previous lows of 3/18 or somewhere south of $900 and then turn and rally. There's really no way of telling unless you happen to be the one that compiles the Employment numbers for the Labor Department. Trading in front of the biggest economic report of the month is gambling, not trading. The facts remain the same on the economic front. We ain't out of the woods yet by any stretch of the imagination. As a matter of fact, we're still trying to figure out which way is North.

Let me leave you with this little snippet from P.J. O'Rourke, my favorite political satirist and Libertarian, when he was asked to evaluate President Obama's performance so far. "A dorm room bull session is in control of our country. Obama wants to change everything at once with no understanding of what those things are, no idea of how change happens in the real world, and no notion of the consequences of his ignorance." I couldn't have said it better myself!

Good trading,

Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Technician

The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation (”SFF-CORP”). Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by SFF-CORP. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.

Looking for excitement? Go to Vegas!

2009-01-01T17:09:00.000-08:00

(The following entry was originally submitted to the Bullion.com blog earlier today.)

Happy New Year! This has been one of the most interesting years in my 25 years in the Financial services industry. I delayed publishing this week’s comments because I wanted to crunch the numbers for 2008 before we put forth a strategy for 2009 and beyond. Gold, although higher earlier in the year, still managed to notch a 5.5% return in 2008. We managed to do significantly better because we take both long AND short positions as the trends change. But make no mistake. The long-term bull trend in GOLD is intact! I happen to believe that the next 24 months could bring new all-time highs in Gold as the fragile financial system fails to respond to massive injections of cash via the unprecedented government bailouts that have been proposed. This will lead to new lows in the Dollar, a continued decline in consumer confidence, a deep and prolonged recession (or Depression) and a major rally in Gold as the focus moves swiftly to stores of value that stocks and bonds can not give.

I’ve been criticized in the past for my writing style regarding the markets. Some believe that I should try to be more “entertaining” when I try to explain the way markets move from a technical perspective. Let me say this right up front. I’m not interested in entertainment. If I want entertainment I go Vegas. When it comes to the markets I’m only interested in one thing- Making money! Unless you are familiar with my work and my track record you may find it difficult to develop and execute a trading plan based solely on my opinion in this blog. As a matter of fact, the development and implementation of a trading plan is the toughest thing for most investore to do and even more difficult for the novice trader. On November 13th when Gold futures were trading just south of $700, I stated in a story on Marketwatch.com that I expected Gold to rally back to the $900 mark. On Monday, FEB Gold futures hit $892.00. Now, you might be inclined to say that I missed the mark. And, you’d be right. All I know is that I came close enough to my mark to bank some serious profits as Gold rallied to the close of 2008. And that, my friends, is what trend following is all about. The major trend in Gold is UP and this leg of the move may be the most impressive. So, take a portion of your investable dollars and invest it in Precious metals. If I’m right, you’ll be smiling at this time next year.

I will add an additional segment to this blog after the close tomorrow as we look at charts on Platinum and Palladium and explore the profit potential of these markets as well.

I wish you all the best in 2009!

Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Analyst

The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation
(”SFF-CORP”) and NOT Castello Cities Internet Network, Incorporated. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by SFF-CORP and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Castello Cities Internet Network, Inc. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.

Another stock market rout!

2008-11-12T15:04:00.000-08:00

Another day, another rout! Stocks continue to swoon in response to the Dollar's refusal to crack. So, commodities will continue to take it on the chin. Stay SHORT Crude, grains, metals and Stock index futures. Buy physical metals (gold and silver coins and bars or ingots) as a hedge against the unthinkable (anarchy) that may beset our nation in the not too distant future. If you follow these rules you may just survive the worst financial period EVER on record!

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

All the lawyers in D.C.

2008-11-12T15:02:00.000-08:00

Have you noticed how many Congressman seem to be getting taller? That's probably because the majority of them are lawyers and they're all taking VIAGRA!!!

Is there a stock market rally on the horizon?

2008-11-11T12:56:00.000-08:00

Let me warn you that you may find my commentary here disturbing but, nonetheless, I feel compelled to put this in writing. I believe today, as I did 4 years ago, that we have entered the darkest period that this country has seen since the Great Depression. This has happened because we allowed our country to be controlled by a duopoly that conspired against the American people with the help of this country's news media. All attempts by individuals or third parties to bring this to light are summarily dismissed. The board that controls the Presidential debates, which is run by the Democrats and Republicans, refuses to allow other candidates' points of view to be heard. We have been lied to, robbed and forced to toe the line by govt. agencies that have, through their own incompetence, wasted trillions of tax dollars due to a total absence of oversight. Yet, heaven forbid that a taxpayer fail to file his return or pay his fair share in a timely manner. The IRS will run him into Tax court, have him locked up and then throw away the key! Of course, we can't have a discussion on our political system without bringing up the subject of entitlements! Heaven forbid! I mean, we're all entitled to something from the govt., aren't we? The policies of entitlement have bred nothing but irresponsibility which has permeated the core of our existence in this country. And, you guessed it, the current govt. bailouts are nothing but irresponsibility being rewarded with trillions of tax dollars! If I had to pick one thing that has been most responsible for the current state, this one would get my vote. Ok, enough with the political commentary. Here's my take on the Financial markets.

The Dollar continues on a tear with the Euro, Pound Sterling and Swiss Franc all getting hammered today. Everything points to continued Dollar strength which would lead me to think that Commodities will continue their downward spiral. The fact that the multi-trillion dollar bailouts are eventually going to force the govt. to issue massive amounts of debt has me wondering how long the Treasury markets are going to be able to maintain their lofty prices and low yields. If we see a reversal in the Treasury market a stock market rally could ensue taking the DOW back to the mid-August highs at 11800. One thing for sure, we're probably going to see some common intramarket relationships disappear leaving a lot of investors scratching their heads. This rally in equities will only happen when the Dollar tops out and begins to turn lower. So investors need to keep watching the Greenback for any evidence that a tradeable rally in stocks is in the offing. But we need to address where we are right now regarding the economy. If we continue to see signs of weakness or more evidence that we have entered a prolonged deflationary cycle then all bets are off and stocks will most likely make new lows as we head into the New Year. Also, the fact that we will have the most socialist-leaning President in our country's history taking the reins in January may be ultimate straw that breaks the camel's back. For the last 4 years I've been doing everything that I could to warn people of the financial mess that we now find ourselves in. The President-elect is going to wonder what compelled him to seek the office that he will soon possess when civil unrest forces him to abandon Iraq and pull all of our troops out of foreign lands, in order to bring them home to try to deal with riots and mayhem in the streets of America. If this should actually happen, then the Precious metals markets will skyrocket and outperform all other asset classes over the next 12-24 months as civil unrest here will lead to Global Armageddon. In any event, Gold and the rest of the metals complex should have a place in everyone's portfolio. But I'm talking the physical metal here, not trading futures, options or the ETF's. Gold and Silver coins and bars will be the only thing that will save you if all hell breaks loose and anarchy replaces the rule of law in America.

Dale F. Doelling

Chief Market Technician

Trends In Commodities

It's time to make a decision.

2008-07-07T04:59:00.000-07:00

I hope you all enjoyed your 4th of July holiday. While our youngest child is in Chicago spending quality time with his brother, my wife and I celebrated our 29th anniversary yesterday. We had a wonderful dinner at a new local restaurant, Dockside Grill in Vero Beach, on Sunday night and then went to our favorite watering hole, the Tiki, on Monday to have a cocktail with some of our friends.

I took an extended hiatus from writing any comments in this blog. I could give you all kinds of excuses why I stopped writing but none of them would hold any water. I finally came to the conclusion that I really enjoy writing. With everything going on in today's topsy-turvy financial markets I should have been here for you to offer some insight on what's really happening, why it's happening and how best to survive the fallout yet to come. And, believe me, we ain't seen nothin' yet! I am also going to exercise my right to talk about what's happening in America with regards to the political landscape and give you my thoughts on what it's going to take to right the ship that we call the U.S.S. America that lost its way. Let me start by saying that, in case you didn't already know, I am a staunch Libertarian. Let me repeat that. I AM A LIBERTARIAN!!! It amazes me how many people still don't know about the Libertarian Party. Please go to www.lp.org and become enlightened. I firmly believe that, if we are going to survive this financial storm, YOU will have to open your mind to a system that is inclusive of the Libertarian philosophy of Freedom and Liberty. The only positive thing that I can find in all of this is the fact that, because of the exclusivity in the political process that the Democrats and Republicans have forged, ALL of the BLAME for ALL of the PROBLEMS lie at the feet of the Democrats AND the Republicans. The ONLY way that we will ever come out of this with our Republic intact is if we start to integrate the Libertarian philosophy into our everyday lives. I believe this with all my heart. It's up to you and me to spread the principle of Liberty every chance we get.

Bob Barr is the Libertarian candidate for President. Please donate to his campaign by visiting his website at BobBarr2008.com or by using the box below.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Where to now for Gold?

2007-11-01T06:08:00.000-07:00

Good morning all,

Well, here's the $64,000 question! Where will Gold go next? I'll give you the technical view since that's the only one that really matters.

DEC GOLD hit a new high of $802.80 overnight but is now trading at around 791.00. The market is certainly in overbought territory but I've seen too many overbought markets continue to rally without so much as a pause in its ascent. But the $800.00 psychological level is clearly proving a formidable obstacle. This may just be the point where the market says "No mas!" and starts a bit of a retracement. Some of my technical indicators are beginning to weaken as the market makes new highs and that is certainly troubling. Momentum oscillators are turning lower as well so don't be surprised if this market stumbles in the near-term. The long-term outlook remains unchanged. If you are just now starting to look at this market (what the hell are you waiting for?) buy APR GOLD futures and options at this juncture on dips or a breakout close above today's high. More later.

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

This one really hurts!

2007-10-26T05:50:00.000-07:00

Good morning all,

When you're in a business like mine you occasionally have friends, sometimes your best friends, ask you about the markets. My best friend, Phil, called me a few weeks ago and said he might be interested in putting some money into the futures markets and asked me what I thought. My response was hardly surprising and I told him that I've been advocating the long side of Gold for a long time. Gold had just had a day or two of downside action and I told him his timing may be perfect so get the account opened and get long. That was almost 4 weeks ago. Did my good friend open his trading account and get long Gold? Nope. Has the market rallied to new highs since that time? Of course! The funny thing is this missed opportunity has hurt me more than my friend because, from my perspective, you welcome the chance to be a hero to your best friend. So, this morning, Gold is up another $10 trading just north of $780. My personal experience tells me that Phil will finally buy Gold just before the market tops out.

What is Gold telling us right now? If I'm right it's telling us we're in big trouble. Do you remember the days of stagflation? Well, think worse than that. People ask me how I can advocate long positions in Gold and Bonds simultaneously. It's very simple. You buy bonds for the return of your principal (flight to safety) and you buy Gold just in case things fall off a cliff. Geronimo!!!!!!!!!!

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Will Interest rates continue to fall?

2007-10-25T07:30:00.001-07:00

Good morning all,

Since I'm going to limit my coverage of the Stock index futures until further notice I'd like to talk about some other markets that I trade regularly. Interest rate futures (Bonds, notes, Eurodollars) have been a staple of my portfolio for over 20 years. When I first started trading these markets they were pretty much the only thing that I traded. I focused all of my studies regarding Technical Analysis on the moves in Interest rates. They are just as appealing today as they were back in the 80's. I've long been bullish on these prices as I have continued to evaluate the health (or lack thereof) of the economy. I know, I know! Everyone on CNBC says the economy is fine! Well, what the hell do they know? You simply cannot have yields at the levels that we are seeing today and have a robust economy. It simply does not happen. So I will continue to reiterate my forecast (God, I hate that word!) on the 5-year note. Before the trend in rates ends we will see the 5-year note yielding 3%. The yield range on the 5-year note for the week has been roughly 3.95% to 4.02%. Prices in the markets are currently dealing with some overhead resistance and it may take some time for them to break out to the upside but I have no doubt that it's just matter of time. So, you may want to wait for a pullback, much like I've been advocating in the Gold market for quite some time. Gold and Bonds. Buy 'em while you still can because they won't be at these levels for long.

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

The DOW continues to confound.

2007-10-23T05:05:00.000-07:00

Good morning all,

The DOW could not confirm Friday's close below the 100-day MA yesterday which leads me to believe that there may still be some life left in the equities markets. The DEC DOW contract is up 45 this morning and, one thing is for sure, the higher the market goes now the larger the correction will be later. Show me someone, besides myself, that isn't BULLISH! There's just way too much complacency which will eventually lead to a mass exodus and, as Ralph Acampora recently said, "a buying boycott". When that happens you'll need to be ready because you want to be SHORT as soon as possible in order to take full advantage of the carnage that will ensue.

Gold gave us another great buying opportunity yesterday as the Dollar tried to rally off of extremely oversold conditions. I know how hard it is to step up in these sharp selloffs but it's the only way to play Gold right now. If the market breaks hard, as it did yesterday, you simply BUY AT THE MARKET. Be alert and stay tuned!

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

The Technical picture on the Dow.

2007-10-22T11:32:00.000-07:00

Good afternoon all,

With overnight weakness in the global equities markets it sure looked like stocks in the U.S. were going to puke hard today but, so far, the selling has dried up and the DOW is now trading in positive territory. But the fact remains that the cash DOW closed below its 100-day MA on Friday and is trading just below that level (13,557) today. If we get consecutive closes below the 100-day MA then I'll be SHORT the DOW once again because that will be all the technical damage necessary to turn stocks lower at this juncture. If that occurs it will signal that this rally, which began on 8/16/07 when the DOW broke the 200-day MA by a large margin only to rally back and close above the MA, has come to an end. I'll wait for the close and post my trading strategy then.

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Will history repeat itself?

2007-10-22T04:11:00.000-07:00

Good morning all,

I was talking with a friend and client on Friday about the activity in the stock markets and he asked me what I was doing on October 19, 1987. I told him I remember that day as if it was last week. I was in the Financial planning business back then and I was just beginning my study of Technical analysis. My reasoning behind getting out of stocks completely on Wednesday, October 14th, was more of a gut feeling or premonition that something big was about to occur. I told my wife that we were packing the bags and taking the kids to Disney World that weekend because I didn't even want to think about the markets. The Dow was down in excess of 100 points on Friday, October 16th, and I was now convinced that the coming week would bring an event that would live in our memories for years to come.

On Monday, we had spent the entire day at Mickeyland and we were in Epcot Center when I noticed a large group of people milling around the TV monitors so I could no longer restrain my curiosity. I made my way through the crowd and there I saw the headlines - "Dow down 508 points". It was a feeling that, to this day, is indescribable. My wife, who knows me better than anyone, knew better than to make a big deal out of the fact that I had predicted an event like this. She already knew I had plenty of ego already so she played it down like only she can do. I didn't really feel all that good about it because I knew that this event had caused a lot serious damage to people's net worth. All I knew is that my clients were safe from the destruction that had occurred and we'd all just have to wait and see what the ultimate effect on the economy and the world would be.

So this brings us to 2007, 20 years after the fact. This past Friday, October 19th, the Dow was down 366 points and the overseas markets are down sharply this morning with the DOW futures down 105 points at 7:30 AM EST. Will the markets experience another meltdown today? I don't know for sure but if you're a regular reader of my blog you know that I have been looking for a catastrophic event that would put things in motion for a protracted period of volatility and carnage in the financial markets. Maybe this will be the catalyst for that event. We'll just have to wait and see.

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Nobody's right all the time!

2007-10-10T04:09:00.001-07:00

Good morning all,

Well, the Stock index futures continue to move ahead and, more importantly, the DOW futures made a new contract high in conjunction with the new all-time closing high in the cash market. So, for now, I'll be standing on the sidelines in these markets waiting for the signal that it's time, once again, to get SHORT. If you look at what's actually keeping these markets afloat it's extremely hard to make a bullish case for stocks but the markets rarely trade in a logical fashion.

The good news is that Gold remains firmly entrenched in its current bullish trend and our target for $800 by year's end remains intact. The downtrend in the Dollar continues and this will obviously provide more fuel for the Precious metals markets. We've been long the Interest rate futures and maintain our target of a 3% 10 yr. note yield during 2008.

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

How will the markets finish the day?

2007-10-05T05:44:00.001-07:00

Good morning all,

The early response to the jobs report in the Stock index futures, the Dollar, the Precious metals and the Interest rate futures is hardly unexpected. The report was a bit stronger than I expected but hardly at levels that insures that the markets are out of the woods. I'm going to sell 14,150 in the DOW and, if the market closes above 14,165 I'll exit my trade, take my medicine, and reevaluate the market. This is a calculated risk trade that I can't turn my back on. There's a fairly high level of risk in the trade but the reward could be spectacular. Let's watch the market action and I'll update this blog after lunch.

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

A possible scenario for tomorrow's markets.

2007-10-04T12:22:00.001-07:00

Good afternoon all,

Well, today's market action in the Stock index futures may just be the calm before the "Perfect Storm" that I've been harping on for the better part of 2 years. So, I just sent the following letter to my good friend Jon Nones, Deputy Editor at ResourceInvestor. I know Jon won't mind that I have included the entire text of my email here. If you haven't, for whatever reason, visited the ResourceInvestor website I highly recommend that you do. You'll find some very insightful articles on the entire spectrum of commodities that we trade. Tell them I sent you!

Dale F. Doelling

_____________________________________________________

Hi Jon,

I know you don't focus much on the Stock Index futures but I have literally traded the DOW futures contract from day one. I have been extremely bearish on stocks for what seems like an eternity and, believe it or not, I've managed to not lose money being short the DOW over the last couple of years mostly because I've been extremely nimble in my approach.

What I wanted to point out to you is what could possibly happen tomorrow if the Employment report shows any additional sign of weakness in the economy and the jobs market. As you are probably aware, the DOW cash closed at a new high on Monday but the DEC DOW futures failed to do so. The previous closing high was 14,165 on 7/19 and Monday's session closed at 14,157. What we are looking at is a possible MAJOR DOUBLE TOP in the DOW futures as the DEC contract was unable to provide confirmation to the new high in the cash DOW. If we get a lousy employment report tomorrow I would not be surprised to see a massive selloff in the 500-800 point range which would then open the markets up to a serious drubbing next week. I've been in this business a long time and that "Perfect Storm" that I've been talking about, ad nauseum, may be ready to make landfall.

Regards,

Dale F. Doelling

President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Where's the new closing high in the DOW Futures?

2007-10-02T12:48:00.000-07:00

Good afternoon all,

Well, this may sound a bit obstinate but it's the truth. We SOLD the DEC DOW yesterday at 14050 and then watched the market move higher right to the closing bell. New highs? Not from our perspective! The DEC DOW contract high came on 7/19 at 14,190 and closed at 14,165. Yesterday's high was 14,195 but closed at 14,157. Now, I know there are a lot of people saying that it's only a matter time but the fact remains the the DOW futures contract has FAILED to notch a new closing high on the daily chart and, considering the massive yawn the market displayed today, I believe that we're putting in a major DOUBLE top here. The complacency on Wall Street is at nosebleed levels and that's always a sign that something major is about to occur. So, I'll remain SHORT the DOW and see how this whole thing plays out. I just hope that, at the very least, you're sitting on the sidelines and aren't LONG this market. A lot of people are going to get caught with their pants down and the end result won't be pretty.

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Is the Dow rally for real? Don't bet on it!

2007-09-27T05:37:00.000-07:00

Good morning all,

So, here we are. The DOW futures are trading just below the 14,000 mark after an intrady high of 14,036. My order to SELL the DOW lies at 14,050. There's an old saying that if the market allows your limit order to be elected the trade is probably a bad one. That's a little early morning trading humor for you. It's always a little frustrating when your order is left in the dust by the market but it happens. We're at extremely lofty levels here so you may not want to wait to get SHORT. I may have to take that advice myself if the market doesn't show some sign of a rally to a new intraday high. I'll be patient for now but I may be forced to reevaluate my position. Stay tuned!

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Mid-week update

2007-09-26T02:47:00.000-07:00

Good morning all,

It's Wednesday and the DOW is currently trading above the 13900 level which means I made the right choice in exiting my SHORT position yesterday. This market is puzzling to say the least. I don't like to bring up fundamentals but the news just keeps getting worse yet the stock index futures find some way to move higher. From a technical perspective this is actually quite positive. So the only question left is why am I not bullish on stocks? The answer to that isn't as simple as you might think. I'm not normally a pessimistic person but I get uncomfortable when I see situations that occur, especially in the financial markets, that are swept aside as if they are of little consequence. The current debacle in housing and the commercial paper markets is just the tip of the iceberg and is anything but inconsequential. It's going to take time to realize the full nature of these events and I can't see how the markets can continue to ignore the potential fallout that I still believe is going to occur. Just look at Gold and then ask yourself why it's continuing to rally if all is right with the world. As I'm fond of saying, we'll just have to wait and see how this whole thing plays out.

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

We'll sit and watch, for now

2007-09-25T07:39:00.000-07:00

Hello all,

While I was writing my last post the market moved through the previous high at 13848 and is now just 6 lower on the day at 13856. I'll just monitor the market for now to see if the momentum traders use this as an excuse to BUY the market. If there's no follow through, I'll be looking to get SHORT once again.

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

DOW Update

2007-09-25T07:29:00.000-07:00

Hello all,

Since the volatility is likely to pick up this week, I'm not going to let my profits on this DOW trade evaporate before my eyes. So, in order to protect myself and my profit, I'm placing a protective stop at 13851 which is 3 tics above today's intraday high. The way I see it, if the market does make a new intraday high, the odds of the market continuing higher increase significantly on the breakout. I refuse to fight the market at this point because the trend is still very questionable and the volatility, as I mentioned earlier, is likely to increase over time. Also, there are still a lot of traders holding on to their "wishing and hoping" that all is right with the world and they'll be waiting to jump all over a breakout to the upside.

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

A standing ovation for standing orders

2007-09-25T06:39:00.000-07:00

Good morning all,

I decided to place a limit order in the DEC DOW futures yesterday in spite of the fact that I was not going to be monitoring the markets very closely while I was trying to take some cash from my son on the golf course. But I still had this hunch that my timing was right regarding the failure in the DOW futures that I wrote about yesterday morning so I placed a limit order to SELL the DEC DOW at 13951 with a 50 point STOP. My SELL order was elected shortly after the cash markets opened and the high was made during that 30-minute bar on the chart. The DOW retested the day's high of 13963 about an hour later but was unable to move through that level. The market has been working lower ever since that double top on the 30-minute chart. We are now trading down 50 points 9:45 AM (13,812) and I won't be surprised to see the market significantly lower by the close.

The Gold market, currently at 736.00 basis DEC, is seeing some selling pressure in spite of a lower dollar. This just gives those who have been wringing their hands hoping for a retracement a chance to buy at a slightly better price. Don't let this opportunity pass you by! More later.

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

DOW at a crossroads!

2007-09-24T07:35:00.000-07:00

Good morning all,

Well this is where things should get interesting regarding the DOW futures. The DEC contract hit its contract high back on July 19th at 14190. The DOW then fell 1,500 points to an intraday low of 12,680 on August 16th. We now find the DOW trading just above the June 1st high of 13,917 and in significantly overbought territory. In spite of the fact that all of the talking heads on CNBC believe that the economy is out of the woods and life is beautiful once again, I can't help to think that this A-B-C retracement rally, powered by a .50% rate cut by the FED, is going to fail miserably. I guess we'll just have to wait and see but I won't start selling the DOW futures just yet. Why? Because I'm going to play golf with my son, Brian, today. I love to trade and fatten my account equity but I love spending time with my kids even more! You only live once!

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Gold - Looking Good!

2007-09-19T05:17:00.000-07:00

Good morning all,

DEC GOLD is trading slightly below Tuesday's high of 735.50 but the uptrend is healthy and I believe this market is ready to kick it into high gear. Keep your eye on the DOW futures today. I won't be surprised to see a positive day in the Stock index futures but there will be a hangover from yesterday's rally so look for the markets to stumble as the euphoria from the interest rate cut starts to wear off.

A logical scenario would be to see a rally up to but just shy of the all-time highs then a major drop in stocks across the board. The only question is how close will they actually get to the previous highs. My guess is that the indexes are only a day or two away from failure.

A fairly safe play, in my opinion, is in the treasury markets. We could see the 5-yr. notes yielding 2-2.5% by the first quarter of 2008 and that means big profits for those of you long Treasury futures. Stay tuned.

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Don't be fooled by the stock market rally!

2007-09-18T13:18:00.000-07:00

Good afternoon all,

I apologize for the delay in putting this on the blog but it's been a very hectic week. So, I know you're all wanting to know about the Stock index futures and the big rally today. Well, all I can say is that it's hardly surprising that the equities markets would rally after the FED cuts both the DISCOUNT rate AND the FED FUNDS rate by 50 basis points. Is anyone listening to what the FED is saying? Did anyone see the early morning headlines regarding foreclosures or the builder sentiment numbers being the worst on record? Then get the FUCKING WAX out of your ears and OPEN YOUR EYES! If all is well with the world then why is GOLD rallying sharply on the news of the FED rate cut? Because all IS NOT well with the world!! Gold is probably headed for the all-time highs above $800. I just hope that it's done in an orderly fashion so the trend can be sustained until we reach the $1,000/oz. mark. More later.

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

How high will Gold go?

2007-09-11T13:25:00.000-07:00

Good afternoon all,

First, I'd like to mention that my recent study of Gold is complete and the first 50 people who send a blank email to dale@daledoelling.com will receive a free copy.

Second, DEC GOLD made a new contract high today and that is very significant for the market. Now, if you're just now starting to look at Gold as a momentum play you're probably wondering if the train has left the station. In my humble opinion, we're only in the 5th inning of this game. Where will Gold eventually top out? That's anyone's guess. But as long as we're guessing I believe that Gold will eventually top $1,000 and may hit $3,000 before it's all said and done.

Just remember to use common sense when trading the Precious metals markets and only use an amount of leverage that you are absolutely comfortable with. From ETF's to the futures and options markets, there's a level of risk and leverage available for everyone. Just take a position in something NOW!! Stay tuned!

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Did you take my advice?

2007-09-07T07:50:00.000-07:00

Good morning all,

Well, I handed you this whole scenario on a silver platter! Did you take my lead and BUY GOLD and SELL the DOW? I certainly hope so because on August 14th I said BUY GOLD and we've been buying since that time including the temporary dips that ensued. Now, DEC GOLD is testing the contract highs at $718. That's a huge move but I believe it's just the beginning. Gold's allure will increase as the financial markets continue to come unraveled. Then the panic will push Gold to all-time highs in quick fashion.

We've been very bearish on the DOW and today's action, down 215 right now, should pave the way for a break of the previous lows which will set off a chain reaction of monumental proportions. There's all kinds of ways to make money in the markets but, unfortunately, a lot of people simply can't understand the Futures markets, believing them to be too esoteric for them. Some just can't make the choice to participate when their inner voice is telling them to jump in. That's unfortunate but true.

We'll be here if you need us. In the meantime, enjoy the action because you ain't seem nothing yet!

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Patience can be a virtue!

2007-09-05T11:21:00.001-07:00

Good afternoon,

For those of you who subscribe to our real-time service, you saw a good example yesterday of why you don't SHORT a market when it's in full-blown rally mode. Yesterday I wrote here that 13450 seemed to be the place where we'd look to SHORT the SEP DOW futures contract but, when the market hit that level yesterday, it was clear that the market had built some momentum and looked like it wanted to press higher. And it did. We SOLD 13500 instead and that trade turned out to be a thing of beauty. We covered at 13300 today for 200 points of pure profit. This may have been a mistake as we move closer to the jobs report on Friday. The market looked like it was going to stage a brief intraday rally but nothing much became of it. So, with the DOW having just made a new low for the day, this could turn out to be a good example of a terrific entry on a trade followed by a premature exit. All we can do now is sit here and see if the market shows any sign of a rally. If that doesnt' occur, we'll have to just get SHORT again. Stay tuned.

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Gold's rally signals trouble ahead for the markets

2007-09-04T10:09:00.000-07:00

Good afternoon all,

I hope you had a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend. The DEC GOLD contract is trading sharply higher again and this signals pending doom for the stock markets as we head into September. I won't be surprised to see Gold breaking through previous resistance levels this week and then surging to new contract highs as the momentum players pile on.

The DOW 13450 level, basis the SEP contract, seems to be a great area to go SHORT as the market simply has been unable to move significantly above this level. If the market can make it to this level again today, as it did on Friday, I'll be selling the market with a goal of at least 100 points on the trade as we made on Friday's trade from this level. But, eventually, the DOW is going to experience the next big wave down and this, of course, will be the time to simply get SHORT and STAY SHORT. Stay tuned!

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Another opportunity!

2007-08-31T05:04:00.000-07:00

Good morning,

With FED Chairman Bernanke waiting in the wings hoping to make all Americans feel all warm and fuzzy, we have another opportunity to SELL stocks. The DOW futures are up by triple digits at around 13400 and I'm just waiting for the sign that this most recent attempt at a rally has failed.

We've got the long weekend ahead and, should the market indexes close lower today, we may see the markets come completely unraveled next week. Stay tuned!

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Surviving the markets

2007-08-29T07:05:00.000-07:00

Good morning,

If you don't subscribe to or read The Economist then please take a moment and click the link to go to their website. I've been reading this magazine for more years than I can remember. I'd have to say that if you forced me to choose just one magazine that I could read I'd have to choose this one. In the 8/18 issue there was a terrific article titled Surviving the Markets on page 9. One line in the article really stood out. "Because the crisis taps so deeply into the newly devised structures of finance, anyone who say the worst is definitely over is either a fool or someone with a position to protect". Absolute Genius! How long has the National Association of Realtors been telling us that "the worst is over" and NOW is absolutely the best time to buy! Do you think the folks at the NAR have a position to protect? You betcha!

The talking heads on Wall Street keep saying this is "just a correction" in a bull market. If they would only tell us where they buy their crystal balls from! Nobody knows where the markets will be tomorrow, next month or next year. All we can do is follow the major underlying trends. The underlying trend in stocks is now DOWN. Follow the trend and make lots of money. Why make it harder than it has to be?

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

What's that smell?

2007-08-28T12:47:00.000-07:00

Good afternoon,

Well, I'd be lying if I said it's not been fun watching the talking heads backpedal and try to explain why the stock markets have continued to retreat in the face of a "fundamentally strong economy" whatever the hell that is. I've heard about all the bullshit that I can take from these idiots.

The consumer is suffering from withdrawal from the credit "orgy" that's been taking place over the last few years and our artificially supported standard of living in this country is about to get "whacked" big time! The pain is going to become unbearable and the FED is finally coming out of the ether but it's just too late. I know I sound like a broken record but it's for your own good. You have to protect yourself, your family and your money. I only hope that you've taken my advice and sold your stocks, bought some gold and paid off your debt. We'll just have to wait and see how bad this economy spirals out of control. I'm betting it will be far worse than anything that we've seen in my lifetime.

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

R-E-C-E-S-S-I-O-N

2007-08-27T13:23:00.000-07:00

Good afternoon,

The stock markets were looking soft in the early going but rallied into the early afternoon only to be sucker punched as it headed for the closing bell. The current wave should take us below the March lows, at the very least. With everything that's happening in the financial markets, the most devastating blow will materialize in the form of a confidence crisis. The consumer is experiencing a hangover of monumental proportions due to easy credit and rising real estate values that came to a screeching halt. A lot of people are in a tight spot and there are going to be a lot of cable TV disconnect orders and cell phones turned off due to layoffs in the financial sector. These people have gone to the well once too often only to find that the well has run dry. This is going to go way beyond belt-tightening. This is going to be a tremendous contraction in consumer spending and there's not a damned thing the FED or anyone else can do about it. So, do yourself a big favor if you haven't done so already. Liquidate your stocks and conserve cash and you might just survive the financial tsunami that is about to hit the mainland.

Dale F. Doelling
Preident and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

More on the Precious metals markets

2007-08-27T06:12:00.000-07:00

Good morning,

There's been plenty of volatility in the Precious metals markets and that's certainly to be expected. I'm trying to keep this blog up to date but there are only 24 hours in the day and it's been very hard to keep this blog current.

I wrote on August 15th that I was adding to my position in DEC GOLD below $675 and, when the price broke through the 7/5 low of $659 I stepped up to the plate and swung for the fences by taking a sizable position on the break. The market action on 8/16 was a classic selloff taking the market down far enough to hit the stops below the 6/27 low of 653.50 only to finish the session back above that support area which led to the sharp rally the following day. This was, quite simply, a market that had been stretched too far. With my technical indicators all signaling that a sharp rally was near I jumped in with both feet. As I write this the market's trading around $676.50 and I believe that a breakout above $700 will occur in the not-too-distant future. If and when that occurs, DEC GOLD could easily eclipse the April highs at $718 making $800 the likely next step as it continues its climb towards the $1,000 mark. Stay tuned!

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

The FED moves!

2007-08-17T05:55:00.001-07:00

Good morning,

Yesterday's market action was, well, volatile. Today's market action will be a carbon copy of yesterday's. Yesterday, FED Governor Poole said there's no need for the FED to act on interest rates. The DOW fell 340 points only to rally back to almost unchanged. The market is down sharply again this morning and then, WHAM, the FED cuts the Discount rate by 50 basis points. Hmmm. No need to lower rates but, what the hell, we'll cut rates anyway. Now, it was the right thing to do as far as I'm concerned but it's too little, too late. Frankly, the FED doesn't have enough ammunition to ward off what's ultimately going to be the end result to the 5 years of abuse in the mortgage and real estate markets.

I've continue to buy Gold on these violent dips and I'll continue to SELL the DOW on these reaction rallies to events such as the one we've had this morning by the FED. I think it's easier to buy Gold on these dips than it is to SELL the DOW because the stock markets have been beaten up pretty good. There could be a very sharp rally off the interest rate cut so be careful. The market will tell us when the rally is done. Stay tuned!

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

The DOW's current technical picture

2007-08-15T07:31:00.001-07:00

Good morning,

I mentioned yesterday that I thought the DOW probably would see some kind of relief rally because the market has gotten fairly oversold and it just makes sense to me that the market is not going to just step into the abyss without a fight. So I covered my SHORTS this morning when the cash market was trading below the 13,000 level. It looks like that decision was a good one. But, more importantly, I took my own advice (which I ALWAYS DO!) and was an aggressive BUYER of DEC GOLD futures below 675.00 this morning and the market is now trading at 680.70. So, both strategies have fattened my account equity nicely!

With the DOW cash now trading up about 42 points I'll simply wait for a sign that the buying is done and the market is ready to capitulate once again. That could happen in a few hours or a few days but I have no doubt that it will happen. Stay tuned!

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Start buying the metals NOW!

2007-08-14T13:42:00.000-07:00

Good afternoon,

Well, I don't have to tell you what happened in the stock markets today. It was another bloodbath. But I have to ask myself, what's the matter with the Precious metals markets? Well, the answer is simple. Even after a nearly 1,000 point decline in the DOW, your average Joe is still holding on to the hope that all is right with the world. Folks, if you believe that then you probably still believe Bill Clinton "never had sexual relations with that woman, Monica Lewinsky". Now, the markets have been kicked in the guts and there could still be one last stand by the bulls. But, I believe that it will last for only a couple of days, just long enough to convince enough people that things will be OK and that Moses will make a encore performance and deliver investors from financial persecution and guide them to the promised land.

Just in case Moses is a no-show, I suggest that, if you haven't already, you start taking small positions in the Precious metals markets. No mining shares. Buy futures, options or even the physical metal itself. As a matter of fact, buy some gold, to have and to hold, because it could come in handy when the markets really go cold. If you are still holding stocks there may be one last chance to dump them at higher prices but don't let the thought of a few extra bucks keep you from doing the right thing. Stick a fork in 'em because stocks are DONE! Cash is going to be a precious commodity. Pay down your debt in whatever way possible and hold on to your hat. Things are about to get really ugly. All the cosmic tumblers have fallen into place to provide the fuel for the Perfect Financial Storm.

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Update on recent FED action

2007-08-14T07:50:00.000-07:00

Good morning,

I thought it would be a good idea to post additional comments regarding the FED and what they should be doing vs. what they are currently doing regarding the credit crunch that we're currently experiencing. The so-called experts continue to tell us that all is well and that there's no need for the FED to lower rates. Injecting liquidity into the banking system, as the FED has been doing until today, will be sufficient to keep the system afloat. Well, I happen to disagree and that's certainly my prerogative. The facts, as I see them, don't support the theory that this crisis can be contained by the recent actions by the FED. We have never, at least in my life, dealt with a situation like the one we currently have in housing, credit, and financial markets in general. There's no crystal ball that can guide us or give us a look into the future. I was speaking with a friend of mine the other night and I offered my favorite analogy for events such as the rapid acceleration in real estate prices from 2002-2006. The farther you stretch the rubber band the more violent the reaction when it snaps back. Sometimes the rubber band breaks when it has been stretched beyond its capabilities. That may have occurred and nobody has recognized it. Because it hasn't happened before doesn't mean it's out of the realm of possibilities. Well, the DOW is down 156 points at 11:16 AM this Tuesday and the market certainly seems to be telling us that all in NOT well in the world. It will be interesting to see what happens when we revisit 13,000 in the DOW. We'll stay short until the market tells us to do otherwise.

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

For once "The Donald" agrees with me!

2007-08-10T07:44:00.000-07:00

Good afternoon,

Donald Trump just agreed with me! He just told the talking heads on CNBC that he thought we would see a recession in this country and soon. He also said the FED should lower interest rates by a full point NOW! I happen to agree with HIM! Let's see if any of this actually come to fruition.

ALERT - The FED is actively adding reserves to the banking system according to the newswires. They need to do much more but they'll always be way behind the curve because they're bureaucrats.

So, there you have the final word from two of the world's greatest financial minds (egos?).

The markets have been relatively stable although sharply lower as I write. DOW futures are down 190 as I write. Once we crack 13000, it could be a quick slide to the 10,000 level wiping out the entire year's gain. We'll see how it all plays out.

Regards,

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

TGIF!

2007-08-10T02:41:00.000-07:00

Good morning,

First, I would like to send out a Happy Birthday to my friend Phil Sullivan. I'll be firing up a fine stogie in your honor later today! Have a great day!

It's 5:41 AM EDT and I'm wondering about what might happen in today's trading session. When I submitted yesterday's entry the DOW futures were only down about 180. We all know what happened next. The Dollar/Yen is trying to stabilize but I think it's just a temporary respite as the market just challenged 118.23 and failed miserably. The DOW futures are down 68 right now but that can change in the blink of an eye. If the equities markets show signs of another meltdown the Dollar should follow. It's going to be a long, hot summer as we continue to see the credit markets disintegrate before our eyes. All the "newfangled" products that took all of those mortgages that weren't worth the paper they were printed on have all turned ugly and those left holding the bag aren't too happy about it. These investment turds are really stinking the joint up as more bad news related to the sub-prime market comes to light. Caveat emptor! Buyer beware. It's a cruel world out there especially in the financial markets. There are plenty of con games still in play so please be careful.

Regards,

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

The Dollar revisited

2007-08-09T06:11:00.000-07:00

Good morning,

The Dollar is in freefall today vs. the Yen as we continue to move towards financial armageddon. If you've followed my writings you know that I have been extremely skeptical about the stock market rally that has occurred over the last year. But you have to understand that the market will always hurt the greatest number of participants and that time, in my humble opinion, is imminent. If you have any doubt just look at the housing debacle that we're currently experiencing. I moved back to Florida in January of 2005 just in time to witness the hysteria that was taking place in the Real Estate markets, not only in South Florida but in most areas of the country. I worked alongside people that were heavily involved in the industry and they believed, with all their hearts, that they had found the "Holy Grail" and nothing could keep prices from going up, up and away! You had people getting mortgages that didn't have a nickel to rub against a dime and speculators that never even considered the possibility that real estate prices COULD actually go down. "Flipping" had a whole new meaning and you must have been a recluse if you weren't doing it too. Situations like this can have only one result. A meltdown has occurred due to easy credit and historically low interest rates. Don't even think about a bottom in this market any time soon. I believe the worst is yet to come and it WILL eventually spread to other areas of our economy which will put us into a deep and prolonged recession. When the Presidential election rolls around we may be hard pressed to find a candidate willing to take over the mess that they will have to inherit from one George W. Bush. This man has been "bush league" from day one. He's taken incompetence to a whole new level which we haven't seen since the days of Jimmy Carter. Please forgive me for going off on a tangent but we, as citizens, must put aside partisanship before we lose EVERYTHING that we have worked for in this country.

That's it for now. DOW futures are down 170 but don't turn your back on this market if you're short like me.

Regards,

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

I'm back!

2007-08-08T16:32:00.000-07:00

Hello all,

Well, I've been on an extended hiatus from writing commentary on the markets. There are many reasons for my absence as I've been busy moving my family into a new home, getting my son acclimated to Florida (again!) and doing a little undercover work in an industry that needs a serious kick in the ass.

I haven't been neglecting the markets. The volatility in the Stock Index futures is off the charts and, for those with a cast-iron stomach, there's a lot of money to be made there. Just don't turn your back on the market for more than a few seconds or you'll likely get a very unpleasant surprise. I've offered some market comments recently to my friend, Myra Saefong, at Marketwatch.com for her Commodities Corner column but that's been about it.

So, I'll be ramping this blog back up over the next few days so let me know what you'd like to read about and I'll try to accomodate you.

Regards,

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Gold building up a head of steam!

2006-10-26T06:18:00.000-07:00

The following comments were sent to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer for Marketwatch.com, at 8:47 AM EDT.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

The outlook for the Precious metals continues to brighten as we are now in Day 3 of this rally in Gold. The market has to overcome two trendlines, one short-term and the other a longer-term trendline drawn from the May highs, but I believe that this area of resistance won't pose any real problem for GOLD. It took 5 months for the market to correct and I believe this correction is over and the next big leg up has begun. My best guess, since I don't make market predictions, is that we'll see DEC GOLD trading near the $650 level before the end of the year! New highs in 2007? Bet on it.

Dale F. Doelling

Chief Market Technician

Trends In Commodities

BUY DEC GOLD!!

2006-10-24T06:18:00.000-07:00

The following comments were sent to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer with Marketwatch.com, at 9:04 AM EDT.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We have another interesting scenario developing in the DEC GOLD contract this week. The daily chart is tracing out a potential HEAD & SHOULDERS bottom that could translate into a vigorous rally in the metals complex over the next few weeks. The low on 9/14 of 576.60 should provide the necessary support if this pattern holds true. A test of that area and then a gradual turn higher would complete the pattern allowing DEC GOLD to finally break through overhead resistance at the 50-day MA currently at 604.60. Should this occur the stage would be set for a rally back to the $650 level in the near-term. SILVER would likely follow Gold's path as it has consistently held the 10.55-10.60 area since mid-July.

Copper continues to trade sideways and further weakness will likely be seen with support coming in near the 3.20 area. If the market were to break this area of support then a retest of the June lows below 3.00 would become a strong possibility.

Dale F. Doelling

Chief Market Technician

Trends In Commodities

Like "deja vu" all over again!

2006-10-19T05:58:00.000-07:00

Gold and Silver are walking the line of unchanged this morning but I haven't given up on my theory that a "reversal of fortune" is about to take place in the metals complex. This is a great example of Inter-Market analysis where the direction of one market correlates to the direction of another. Yesterday I alerted our clients to a scenario that isn't dead yet even though it didn't quite play out the way we had expected it to. This is like "deja vu" all over again. I can remember the stock market crash of '87 as if it were yesterday. I believe this October, like October of 1987, may have a surprise for the markets that will drastically change traders' perspectives. Is there anyone out there in the financial world that doesn't think that "UP" is the only way stocks can go? Complacency is like a cancer - once it's discovered it's usually too late to do anything about it. So traders need to keep their fingers on the trigger and be ready to BUY GOLD and SILVER between now and Friday if my theory comes to fruition. It could be the last great buying opportunity of 2006.

Dale F. Doelling

Chief Market Technician

Trends In Commodities

Will today be "the day the music died"?

2006-10-18T09:35:00.000-07:00

The DOW Industrial Average FINALLY breaks the 12,000 mark then quickly ducks for cover. Can we mark our calendars showing that 10/18/06 was the beginning of the end for stocks? It's still too early to tell but I've been talking about this exact scenario to our clients and, if it does hold true and the DOW ends the day in negative territory, this may just end up being the top in the Stock Index futures.

Stay tuned!

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Coverage on TheStreet.com

2006-10-11T10:06:00.000-07:00

I'd like to thank Mr. Simon Constable, Financial Writer for TheStreet.com, for adding Trends In Commodities to his list of market commentators. You can read today's comments on TheStreet.com.

Market comments for October 5, 2006

2006-10-05T06:01:00.000-07:00

The following comments were transmitted to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer at Marketwatch.com, at 8:47 AM EDT.

_____________________________________________________________________

This short covering rally this morning is, unfortunately, nothing more than a good opportunity to sell Gold and Silver. The technical picture is quite clear as the trends in the metals remain down. Now that I've given you the gloom and doom let me say that it's always darkest before the dawn and I happen to think that the bottom is near. The Financial markets are near their respective peaks where the air is getting very thin. That's the reason for all the euphoria. The lack of oxygen is causing a return of "irrational exuberance" only this time we've got a lot more negatives that come into play. One look at a daily chart of Gold and we're quickly reminded how fast markets can turn. Well, don't look now but the recent pullback in the metals complex will pale in comparison to what's in store for the financial markets. It's time, once again, for stock traders to take their medicine and this will benefit Gold and Silver tremendously over the next couple of years. As a matter of fact, by the time the dust settles, traders won't want to own anything BUT Gold and Silver. Remember, you heard it here first.

Dale F. Doelling

Chief Market Technician

Trends In Commodities

BUY DEC CORN

2006-08-22T06:17:00.000-07:00

I've been looking for a place to get long the grains and I think the time has come. Let's look at what has happened in the Corn market, which happens to be one of my favorites, and I'll show you how I analyze the market from a trend follower's point of view. One thing that I'm always looking for in my analysis is divergences. This is where a market makes a new low but a technical indicator that I'm using fails to make a new low. This can many times signal that a reversal could be imminent. Looking at the daily chart and using the Williams %R oscillator, the divergence is obvious. The Williams %R bottomed with a reading of 98.00 on August 11th with the market trading at 241 3/4. The market made a new contract low at 233 1/2 and closed at 235 3/4 on 8/18 and the oscillator reading was 93. Here's the divergence that I was looking for. I BOT DEC CORN MOO on Monday, August 21st at 236. To translate, I bought the December Corn contract at the market on the open (MOO) and was filled at a price of 236. The market closed the session at 237 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents on the day or a gain of $87.50 per contract from the prior day's close. If I'm right and this signal is validated by further gains then Corn should rally from this point to at least the first resistance area at around 248. That would give me about $550 profit per contract. With the current margin for Corn at $608, that would give me a cash on cash return of over 90% if the market reaches the area of resistance at 248.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Wednesday's Precious metals commentary

2006-08-16T13:02:00.000-07:00

The following comments were sent to Myra P. Saefong, Financial columnist
at Marketwatch.com at 9:44 AM EDT.
______________________________________________________

The Dollar is starting to resemble Rocky Balboa this week. It takes a
terrific beating with every release of economic news but it finds a way to
get back on its feet to fight another round. The short-term trend in the
Dollar v. the Yen is getting a little shaky with trendline support at 115.40
Yen being critical if the greenback is to continue this recent rally. The
Gold traders are still scratching their heads wondering how long this choppy
environment will last. With no real direction it's a very tough trading
environment and, for what it's worth, I still think the metals complex has
some work left on the downside before it finds a bottom. These are
definitely the "dog days" of summer. Still, the fact that the housing
sector has fallen into a coma, the long-term effects will soon become
apparent and the Dollar will suffer from the fallout. As this scenario
unfolds, it should bring stocks to their knees and provide metals traders
with plenty of incentive to move Gold and Silver to new all-time highs
eventually.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Here's the mid-month commodities update

2006-08-15T17:39:00.000-07:00

Here's a new feature for all of you. We'll be providing you with an update on all the markets we cover on the 1st and 15th of the month. Here's the mid-August update:

Stock Index futures:

SEP DOW futures contract began the month at 11230 and settled today at 11248.
SEP RUSSELL 2000 contract began the month at 704.60 and settled today at 699.30.
SEP NIKKEI contract began the month at 15435.00 and settled today at 16020.00.

This simply shows us that Foreign markets are outperforming our markets and, within our markets, the small caps have weakened vs. the Big Cap stocks but, frankly, the markets have done nothing but churn over the last two weeks. I think you know my opinion on the Stock Index futures. SELL all rallies. I think today's market action was probably a selling oportunity.

Grains:

SEP CORN began the month at 239-0 and settled today at 222-0
SEP WHEAT began the month at 397-4 and settled today at 376-6
SEP SOYBEANS began the month at 585-4 and settled today at 556-4

Here's a group that has been creamed of late. Is there a bottom in here somewhere? I think so but I've never been a fan of catching falling knives. I'm going to stand aside for now but I'll be watching these markets very closely for any sign that a rally is about to occur.

Currencies:

SEP DOLLAR INDEX began the month at 85.09 and settled today at 85.05.

Although the Dollar has seen some strength over the last two weeks vs. the Yen the rest of the currencies have been relatively flat. I've been a buyer of the Dollar vs. the Yen since it bottomed on August 4th. But the longer-term outlook is highly suspect and a possible head andn shoulders top in beginning to form on the daily chart. With today's PPI number taking the steam out of the recent rally it's highly likely that the rally has peaked.

Energy Complex:

SEP CRUDE OIL began the month at 74.40 and settled today at 73.03
SEP UNLEADED GAS began the month at 221.18 and settled today at 200.25
SEP NAT GAS began the month at 8.211 and settled today at 7.025
SEP HEATING OIL began the month at 2.0376 and settled at 2.0275

I've been very bearish on Crude Oil and Unleaded Gas but mildly bullish on Nat Gas. I put on some LONG NAT GAS/SHORT CRUDE spreads on July 24th, I've taken my profits already. This area should continue to work lower as the "fear premium" gets wrung out. Also, demand is deteriorating which should continue to pressure the Energy complex.

Interest rates:

SEP 30 yr. BONDS began the month at 108-09 and settled today at 108-23
SEP 10 yr. NOTES began the month at 106-010 and settled today at 106-090

I've been LONG bonds for a while now and, although the PPI numbers released today were rather tame, I just don't know whether there will be a lasting affect on the markets. The 10 yrs. have rallied over 2 1/2 points since the low was made in late June. The markets haven't retraced enough for me to exit my LONG positions but I'll need to see some real follow-through over the next couple of sessions to keep my position intact.

Meats:

AUG LIVE CATTLE began the month at 83.72 and settled today at 87.75
AUG LEAN HOGS began the month at 68.55 and settled today at 71.75

I don't trade the MEATS very much but they've been on a tear recently. LIVE CATTLE, since bottoming in April, has rallied 20%. LEAN HOGS have been a little more volatile but have logged some significant gains since April. If you have the stomach for these markets power to you.

Precious Metals:

OCT GOLD began the month at 640.40 and settled today at 628.30
SEP SILVER began the month at 1137.0 and settled today at 1212.5
SEP COPPER began the month at 357.00 and settled today at 351.50

We've had a bit of a mixed bag in these markets with GOLD and COPPER lower and SILVER higher. I think we have more work to do to the downside in the short-term but I'm still a MAJOR BULL longer-term. BUY the dips in GOLD and COPPER for now.

Softs:

OCT COTTON began the month at 53.45 and settled today at 53.35
SEP FCOJ began the month at 169.25 and settled today at 172.50
SEP COFFEE began the month at 99.35 and settled today at 102.85
OCT SUGAR began the month at 14.91 and settled today at 12.79
SEP COCOA began the month at 1486 and settled today at 1524
OCT LUMBER began the month at 273.00 and settled today at 265.80

These markets are always interesting and the last two weeks have been no exception. Cotton is the same price it was 2 years ago. One of two markets that are really worth taking a look at, OJ has been one of the truly stellar performers and has been on a tear since it bottomed in May of 2004. Coffee could very well work its way back to the 90 cent level soon. Sugar ain't been real sweet lately since it failed to break the 20 cent mark at the beginning of the year. Cocoa rallied sharply in late June and into July but has now fallen back into the previous trading range. Lumber is the other market worth looking at and I've been SHORT this market simply because I think there's a lot of bloodletting that will take place in the housing markets over the next 18-24 months. If you can handle trading LUMBER stay SHORT for further gains.

That's the update for mid-August. If you have any questions email me a dale@trendsincommodities.com.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Monday's Precious metals commentary

2006-08-14T05:16:00.000-07:00

The following comments were sent to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Columnist at Marketwatch.com, at 7:33 AM EDT.
__________________________________________________________________

The traders that are looking at the daily charts of Gold, Silver and Coppermight conclude that the secular bull markets and well-defined trends thathave developed over the last 5 years have come completely unravelled.But a longer-term view of the markets, i.e. weekly and monthly charts,provides a far brighter picture. By expanding their time horizon traders canfind strong evidence that the long-term trends remain intact.Successful traders often need to alter their perpective especially during periodswhen the markets experience a lack of direction and become choppy andvolatile because these types of markets are extremely tough to squeeze profits from.A short-term trader could make the case that there are only 2 positives in theGold market right now. 1) OCT GOLD closed above the 50-dayMA (627.30) on Friday and 2) the 100-day MA still has a positive slope.The bad news is more extensive. The 20 and 50 day MA's have turned downand Gold closed below both the 20-day and 100-day MA's on Friday and isnow trading more than $50 below the retracement high of 684.70 on July 17th.In other words, it's not looking good if your focus is on the short-term.Absent of well-defined short-term trends the markets are being whipsawed byevery minor news item and comment by anyone of any importance around the globe.This makes for an extremely difficult trading environment. The short-termtraders can only hope that the current market conditions will be short-lived and that theshort-term trends will emerge once again. If this occurs, the likelihood that the metalsmarkets can push to new all-time highs will rise dramatically.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

An ugly August ahead?

2006-08-01T08:44:00.000-07:00

The DOW futures, which I have been SHORT since May, are starting off the month with sharp declines. If you've been monitoring this blog then you know that I warned that the DOW's retracement rally ended on Friday when the index broke through the 100-day MA on an intraday basis but ended the week below that level. I don't believe in trying to predict where the markets are going to be in the future but I have to admit that I believe the month of August will go down in the record books as one of the ugliest on record for the Stock Index futures. Let's just call it a hunch. So, stay SHORT and enjoy the ride to new cycle lows. There is a pot of gold at the end of this rainbow but only those traders who exercise patience will generate the maximum profit from this next leg down.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Comments on Commodities

2006-07-31T17:42:00.000-07:00

I received an email from Jon Nones, Financial Writer for Resource Investor, asking for comments on the commodities markets. Jon wanted my thoughts on which markets I thought were leaders and laggards in the first leg of this secular bull market in the commodities markets and which might lead the markets higher from here. The following are excerpts from my response to Jon which was sent on July 22, 2006. Take note of my comments on Natural Gas which has skyrocketed since I wrote these comments.

___________________________________________________________________

The Energy complex: LEADER. You certainly have to rank this group as a leader in the current bull market in commodities. But what some have missed is the fact that NaturalGas, after record highs in 2005, has now fallen 50%. Did Nat Gas make a bottom recently and is now ready to retest the highs of 2005? It's too early to tell from a strictly technical view but I wouldn't be surprised if a major bottom is in place in this market. So I might be tempted to BUY NAT GAS and SELL CRUDE or UNLEADED GAS at this juncture because the fundamentals simply don't support Crude at these levels and I think that market could see the same kind of retracement that Nat Gas experienced.

The Precious metals: LEADER. These markets are a tough call right now. I had no choice but to declare the Bull market over recently when Gold closed below its 100-day MA on 6/13. Of course we now know that Gold bottomed the following day and was able to regain nearly 68% of the decline before turning lower again recently. When Gold failed to break the previous low at 546.00 I got far less bearish on the market. That was a significant level on the chart and the market held. Now, the market is once again sitting right above the 100-day MA (619.90). I'd be willing to wager that, if the market closes below this level a second time that we'll see the market move below 546.40, the recent low in June. Silver is in the same boat. Copper is approaching trendline support. If it breaks, sayonara to Copper in the near-term.

Grains: LAGGARD. Here's an area that is very interesting to me. I love to trade the grains because I've probably been trading them longer than any other group. I think this could be a group to watch because Corn has traded sideways all year long. It's not going to do that forever. Ditto for the bean market. Wheat may have made a major low in March and could be the market to lead the entire complex higher from here.

Meats: BIPOLAR. You never know what you're going to get trading these markets. That's why I don't trade them.

Softs: MIXED BAG. There have been some great moves in these markets and there have been some duds. FCOJ and Sugar have been stellar performers until this year. Are they consolidating or are they ready to tumble? I think it's too early to tell. Cotton could be a surprise over the next 12 months. With the recent break below 50 cents, this market looks like it could roar into 2007. Cocoa is interesting. If it hold the previous lows at around 1400 it could reverse quickly and move back to the upper end on the trading range near 1900. But I think this market could break the previous lows and this would start the beginning of an ugly slide back below 1000. Coffee is near 2 1/2 year lows. The same holds true for Coffee as it does for Cocoa. If the market breaks 90 cents it could go to 50. Lumber has been puking its guts out and that's a very good sign that there's big trouble in the housing sector.
Which leads me to my "financial apocalypse" scenario that I've been touting for as long as I can remember. 75% of the economy is based on housing. Housing is going to be bloodied over the next few years and it's going to take the US Economy with it. Just look at Lumber if you don't believe me. When this house of cards really starts to fall it's going to be ugly. Ben Bernanke wanted to be the Chairman of the FED. It could be the biggest mistake of his life.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

More comments on the DOW

2006-07-28T10:44:00.000-07:00

Here's where the near-term market direction should become quite clear. With the DOW futures eclipsing the 100-day MA of 11258 (11275 intraday high) we now must wait and see how the market is able to finish. The last time the DOW closed above the 100-day MA was on July 6th. The market was only able to close above the MA one day before it fell over 500 points in the next 6 sessions. Do chart patterns repeat themselves? Very often they do. If the market closes above 11258 then Monday will be the day that should tell us whether the DOW continues on its merry way or it takes another nosedive. Stay tuned!

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Sunday evening observation (9:05 PM EDT): The Dow futures broke through near-term resistance on Friday but was unable to maintain those levels and ended the day below the 100-day MA closing at 11254. With the market down 10 in the early going this could be a great time to SHORT the Dow or BUY PUTS on the DOW or other stock indexes. I'll update this blog on Monday morning after the market opens at 9:30 AM EDT.

DOW Update

2006-07-28T06:10:00.000-07:00

Here's the deal. The Dollar is getting hit hard this morning after a much weaker-than-expected GDP number but, so far, it's holding right at trendline support at around the 114.90 Yen level. Now, some of you may be asking yourselves, "What's the Dollar got to do with the DOW?" A lot, actually. If you were to place a chart of the Dollar over top of a chart of the DOW futures you would see that their relationship is inverse and fairly consistent. So, here's where it gets interesting. If the Dollar is able to hold trendline support and rally off of today's lows we should begin to see the DOW turn lower. Also, the Dollar is reaching fairly significant OVERSOLD levels just as the DOW is getting into OVERBOUGHT territory. We'll keep watching this pattern to see if it holds.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

It's looking pretty good so far!

2006-07-27T12:13:00.000-07:00

The DOW futures were able to move above the trendline resistance but failed to reach the 100-day MA that I mentioned in my previous entry. Now the market is failing miserably and those of you who got SHORT near the 11200 level are looking pretty good so far. It's still too early to tell if a top in in place but I won't be surprised if 11225, today's high in the $5 DOW, is the high for this retracement rally in this long-term bear market in the Stock Index futures.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Picking tops and bottoms

2006-07-27T06:38:00.000-07:00

It's always tough to pick retracement tops and bottoms and the DOW futures are proving, once again, just how tough a task it can be. The market is higher this morning as it presses toward resistance at the 11200 level represented by the trendline drawn from the MAY/JULY highs. So, this may be a very good place to lightly SELL the DOW keeping in mind that there's a decent chance that the DOW might just make a run at the 100-day MA at 11254. Shorting the DOW here would give you about a $300-$400 risk per contract and that should be tolerable for most traders. Consecutive closes above the 100-day MA would negate this whole scenario and probably push the DOW sharply higher. I'll be very surprised if that comes to pass.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

"I've seen this before."

2006-07-24T12:59:00.000-07:00

Mondays, I have found, always hold the most potential for surprise from the perspective of a market trader. Take today for example. Last week, the Stock markets remained strongly entrenched in their long-term downtrends with the NASDAQ hitting a 14-month low. But what a difference a (Mon)day makes! The DOW has ripped a limb off of the bears today with a near 200 point advance. I sometimes feel like Chance the gardener in the movie "Being There". Chance wasn't the brightest bulb in the drawer but he would occasionally say something brilliant. "I've seen this before" he would say. And just in case you've never seen the movie, do yourself a huge favor and go to your local Hollywood Video and rent it.

What I'm trying to say here is that these rallies are all intended to bring hope back to the masses of investors who wouldn't know how to SHORT the markets if they had a gun to their heads. So, lo and behold, we have a rally underway and hope springs eternal! What we'll probably see is an hour or two of buying tomorrow and the resumption of the downtrend. In other words, we have another great opportunity to get SHORT the Stock Index futures. I've been SHORT since May and I've done well. Could the market rally last longer than just a day? Of course it could but I'm betting it won't. Never be afraid to bet your conviction.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Gone fishin'!

2006-06-30T04:53:00.000-07:00

I will be on vacation until July 10th beginning tomorrow. I wish all of you a safe and happy 4th of July holiday. My wife and I will be celebrating our 27th year of marriage next week. How she has managed to maintain her sanity is beyond me!

One last note before I go. I was just looking at some charts and I wanted to let you know about a very interesting situation that is happening in the Copper market. The daily chart was showing signs of a "bear flag" formation, until today. The overnight action in Copper has allowed the SEP COPPER contract to break out of the "flag" formation. If the market is able to hold on to these gains today this could be a very good sign that the lows are in and higher prices are likely. I won't be surprised to see Copper substantially higher when I return from vacation.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

A followup to my June 27th post on the DOW.

2006-06-30T04:14:00.000-07:00

I was rather surprised at the market's strong reaction to the FED's rate hike yesterday and so I thought I'd do some more work on the technicals as they apply to the DOW futures. Here's what I came up with.

A very interesting scenario has developed in the DOW. The market's big rally yesterday took the DOW futures right up to key resistance at the 100-day MA (11,268). If I happened to be bearish on the long-term prospects for stocks I would consider this to be a perfect opportunity to SELL the DOW futures using a very tight stop above the 50-day MA of 11,289 (on a closing basis only). If the market clears that level (11,289) then I'd have to reconsider my position as this would be very bullish for the markets near-term prospects.

Enjoy your 4th of July holiday!

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Post FED comments

2006-06-29T16:12:00.000-07:00

These are additional comments that were emailed to Polya Lesova, Financial Writer at Marketwatch.com, immediately after the FOMC announcement on interest rates.
___________________________________________________________

With the Dollar going into a virtual freefall since the FED announcement, it will be interesting to see just how far Gold can rally. If Tuesday's high of 599 gets taken out there's a decent chance that the rally can continue right up to major resistance at 609.40 which is the 100-day MA. If Gold is going to test that resistance level it will take some serious fund buying along with continued Dollar weakness which just hasn't been evident of late.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Pre-FED announcement commets

2006-06-29T16:08:00.000-07:00

The following comments were emailed to Polya Lesova, Financial Writer at Marketwatch.com, at 8:57 AM EDT.
_________________________________________________________

It seems like the markets have been sloshing around for days in anticipation of today's decision by the FOMC on interest rates. The question is - Will they raise 25 or 50 basis points? 25 is a given but 50 could send ripples through the markets and make for some very volatile trading. There doesn't seem to be anything in the near-term that will move Gold back above the $600 mark so it would seem that the path of least resistance points to lower prices in the Precious metals complex. Although the Dollar has been treading water for days the likelihood of further gains against the major currencies remains favorable, especially if the markets get a 50 point pop in the fed funds rate. Suffice to say that we'll see little in the way of volume or volatility until the announcement comes this afternoon. I guess we'll all need to find a good book to read until then.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Watching the DOW.

2006-06-27T09:36:00.000-07:00

The action in the Stock index futures, specifically the DOW, is telling me that we are in for another sharp drop and that additional SHORT positions are warranted at this time. We began selling the DOW futures on May 9th and have continued to hold these positions. With another rate hike imminent, the markets may just choke on this additional tightening by the FED.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities.com

2006-06-27T07:25:00.000-07:00

The following comments were sent to Polya Lesova, Financial Writer at Marketwatch.com, at 9:39 AM EDT.
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We've reached one of those interesting times in the markets where you have many fundamental forces colliding with the technical aspects of the markets. The FOMC meeting this week is keeping the metals traders on the edge as they square postions ahead of the Thursday announcement. The consensus is that the FED will raise rates again so that is already factored into the markets. With the Dollar/Yen having completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at this morning's 116.69 high the Dollar's month-long rally could be coming to an end. If the Dollar turns lower it may just provide the spark that will allow the Precious metals to gain some footing and begin to move higher. Gold and Silver still have a ways to go before they test major resistance so, for now, this short-term rally in the metals has a long way to go before it becomes significant. For now, I continue to see the strength in GOLD and SILVER as nothing but a retracement from an oversold condition. When they approach their respective major resistance areas then we'll get a better idea as to whether the markets have actually turned the corner.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Is the Dollar rally done?

2006-06-26T10:09:00.000-07:00

The Dollar/Yen has now made a perfect 61.8% retracement from the December 5, 2005 high of 121.37 to the May 17, 2006 low of 108.96. This is only important if you give any credence to the major Fibonacci numbers. Due to this retracement number being reached it might be a good idea to watch what the Dollar does in light of the fact that the FOMC will be deciding their next interest rate move on Thursday. I like the SHORT side at this level because of the divergences that are taking place in our proprietary oscillators and the overbought levels that we are currently seeing in the Dollar/Yen. Choosing the correct entry point is extremely important when it comes to trading and this is one that I like. So, we're SHORT the Dollar/Yen after this one month retracement. Now it's a matter of waiting to see if our assessment of the market is correct. If we are correct the continuation of the long-term downtrend in the Dollar should be at hand.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities.com

Precious metals bull market - R.I.P.

2006-06-13T07:41:00.000-07:00

The following comments were sent to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer for Marketwatch.com, at 7:56 AM EDT.
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The Precious metals bull market is officially over. Just remember, you heard it here first. I say this with some trepidation because the markets love to see me eat my words and, frankly, I'd love nothing better at this juncture. But, from a technical perspective, no matter how oversold the markets have become, the markets have sufferred far too much damage. The only thing left to do is to declare the bull market to be finished and hope that they'll bounce back and rally sharply. But, as one wise old trader once said, there's no wishing or hoping when it comes to trading.

AUG GOLD, having flirted with its 100-day MA for a couple of sessions, broke down in overnight trade and is now looking to revisit the highs from January at around $589. Any close below this level and $550 is the next obvious target on the daily chart. JUL SILVER, after being above $15.00 a month ago, is also pushing down to its January highs of around $10.00. As Silver took out dollar sized chunks on the way up it's doing exactly the same thing on the way down. The thing that I find most surprising about this decline is the correlation that we've seen in the markets. As Gold and Silver rose (along with many other commodities), so did the stock market. As we watch Gold and Silver decline, stocks are declining as well. I expected the latter but not the former. The improbable has now become reality. I guess that's what I love about the markets. What may seem totally illogical is exactly what a trader should anticipate. In other words, never rule anything out when it comes to the financial markets.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Precious metals on track.

2006-04-11T04:44:00.000-07:00

The following comments were emailed to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer at Marketwatch.com, at 7:41 AM EDT.
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The strengthening Dollar has provided no real impediment to the Precious metals complex as APR GOLD now has one daily close above the $600 mark under its belt and Silver and Copper continue to rally sharply with MAY SILVER touching $13.00 briefly in the overnight trade. These are powerful bull markets that just continue to feed on themselves as market momentum is showing no sign of abating. Consecutive closes above $600 will certainly do wonders for the outlook for Gold, and consecutive closes above $13.00 in May Silver would keep that market on track as well is spite of its severe overbought condition. MAY COPPER seems to have its sights set on the $3.00 mark and I, for one, think it will probably achieve that mark.

The Energy markets defy logic, especially Crude Oil, as the price of Crude is not reflecting the current Supply/Demand equation. We're literally awash in the product right now so I believe it's only a matter of time before Crude experiences a sharp retracement and, although I was short MAY CRUDE before getting stopped out on the trade yesterday, I believe the approach to $70 will bring the sellers back in droves which could drive prices below initial support at 65.60. Any close below this level would most likely bring a swift decline which could set up a test of major support at the 60.25 area.

Dale F. Doelling

Chief Market Technician

Trends In Commodities

There are no guarantees when it comes to trading the markets.

2006-04-07T09:36:00.000-07:00

The following comments were sent to Myra P. Saefong, financial writer at Marketwatch.com, at 9:35 AM EDT.
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A good employment report wasn't able to keep the Dollar from losing some ground this morning and it certainly didn't do anything for the Precious metals markets either. APR GOLD is still having difficulty closing above the $600 mark and that does make me a little nervous. MAY SILVER is trading above $12.00 but is likely to correct at some point due to its severe overbought condition. If the Dollar should find its footing and break above the 118.00 Yen level, all of the enthusiasm that has been witnessed in the metals markets could evaporate in an instant and those analysts who seem to be able to predict, with 100% certainty, the long-term direction of Gold or Silver or Tulip bulbs, for that matter, may finally learn that the markets simply don't work that way. The fact remains that NO ONE knows where a particular market may go, short or long term. The best that a trader can do is determine whether a trend has developed, trade with that trend, and hope it doesn't end as soon as they enter the market.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Looking for that second wind.

2006-04-04T05:44:00.000-07:00

These following comments were emailed to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer for Marketwatch.com, at 8:41 AM EDT.
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Traders are pondering the same question that was raised many months ago. When will Gold break the $600 mark? Even with a very nice first quarter gain Gold continues to frustrate those of us who have been advocating the long side of this market. Well, if I had known it would take this long I would have never uttered the phrase "$600 Gold" to begin with. My arms are getting very tired from "carrying the torch" for this market. Now, don't get me wrong. My position on the Precious metals markets remains enthusiastically "bullish" but this is where it really gets tough to hold on to your objectivity. We traders are only human, after all. This is like a marathon runner who has "hit the wall" and is looking for that second wind that is going to allow his to finish the race. I believe Gold is about to get its second wind, i.e. the $600 barrier and, once that hurdle is overcome, the metals markets could kick things into high gear and simply run away from those who were hoping to get in a slightly better price.

Dale F. Doelling

Chief Market Technician

Trends In Commodities

Why they're called "Precious" metals.

2006-04-04T04:39:00.000-07:00

This was sent to our basic subscribers on 04/03/06.
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A new quarter has begun and we'd like to just review our positions from the first quarter to see where we've been and where we might be heading. Please don't misconstrue what I just said. We don't attempt to predict anything when it comes to the markets. We follow trends and we manage the risk on the individual trades. We have been blessed with a secular bull market in the commodities markets for over 4 years now. If you have been a participant, congratulations! You should be very wealthy by now. If not, I will try, through this service, to help you get your share of the profits that are yet to come as the commodities bull market is showing no signs of decay.

Precious Metals - Anyone that follows my comments in the financial journals knows that I have been bullish and, of course, LONG the Precious metals for quite some time. All you have to do is go back to August of last year and I was still begging traders to get LONG the market. I am THE "raging bull" when it comes to the Precious metals complex. (See article at http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=11873) So where do I stand today? Well, nothing has changed because the trend remains up. Now, I know what some of you are saying. "Dale, the market has come a long way and I'm just not comfortable buying at these lofty levels." Well, my friends, one of the tenets of trend following is the "Buy high and Sell higher". Could the trend in Gold and Silver end today? Absolutely! That's where the "Manage the Risk" part of the trade applies. No one knows when trends will end but don't sell this bull market short. I believe that Gold will rally to $1,000 and beyond. Remember, that's just one man's opinion. To recap, APR GOLD closed at 523.40 on December 30, 2005. The closing price on March 31, 2006 was 581.80. I'll do the math for you. That's an 11%+ gain for the quarter. But, of course, due to the leverage that can be applied in the futures markets, our actual return was simply phenomenal. MAY Silver? It closes at $8.96 on 12/30/05 and the closing price on Friday was $11.52. That's a quarterly gain of 28.6%! Let me throw in one caveat while you wipe the drool off your face. I like Gold much better than I do Silver right now due to one thing - the new SILVER ETF that should come to market soon. This new trading vehicle has created an artificial demand for Silver and, once the IPO comes to markets, I won't be surprised to see a setback in Silver. But this setback would probably be nothing more than an opportunity to enter the market for further gains.

Here's a link to a very interesting chart on Gold courtesy of The Privateer.

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-pf.html

More later.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Thursday's Metals comments - 03/30/2006

2006-03-30T07:40:00.000-08:00

The following comments were emailed to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer at Marketwatch.com, at 9:34 A.M.

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If there was any doubt about the health of the Precious metals complex today should certainly erase that doubt. APR Gold is looking to post a new closing high for the contract, the previous high being 576.80. If this should occur, then a swift rally to the $600 area would most likely follow. MAY Silver continues to rally in anticipation of the launch of the Silver-based ETF. It will be very interesting to see whether Silver be be able to maintain these lofty levels once the IPO comes to market. I'm skeptical and I expect a setback in Silver after the ETF is launched. I also expect to see the volatility in Silver rise in the interim. Copper, which I like to call the "ol' man river" market because it "just keeps rolling along" - HIGHER!!! What a magnificent market to trade. Not many surprises here as the market now seems to be targeting the $3.00 level. Only time will tell whether the market has what it will take to reach that lofty level.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Back to the (DOW) Futures!

2006-03-02T13:33:00.000-08:00

I haven't posted any comments on the DOW futures since January 9th but I have been watching (and trading) when the opportunity arises. As I'm sure you are aware, I am a long-term BEAR on the Stock Index futures and I recently began SHORTING the JUN $5 DOW futures contract, first at 11100 and then at 11200. Here's my strategy and it's certainly not too late to get on board. I'm risking $7500 on this strategy and I'll be the first to admit that most professional traders would think I've taken leave of my senses regarding my approach to this particular market. But, as I like to point out, it's MY MONEY!! I'm using a 150 point stop loss or $750 per trade. I'm trading one lots and I'm selling all the way up to 12000. As it stands right now, with the market closing at 11118 (down 11 on the day), I'm up 64 points on my 2 positions. I will SELL another Jun DOW contract at 11000 STOP and continue to do so until further notice. If you have any questions or comments you can post them here on the Weblog.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

03/02/2006 Precious Metals comments

2006-03-02T11:42:00.000-08:00

The following was emailed to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer at Marketwatch.com, at 8:50 AM EST.
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The new month finds the metals complex starting off rather quietly as the "tug-o-war" continues between support and resistance and neither side able to gain the upper hand. There's little reason to be overly concerned about any major retracement but there's also little evidence that the market will break out to new highs anytime soon either. Traders' patience will likely be tested over the next several weeks and one side will finally cry "uncle". I believe that the long-term trend remains intact in all of the metals markets but we may have to experience a longer than normal consolidation period before the markets are finally able to see some fresh buying which would put the markets back on track for new contract highs. In the meantime, we'll probably see volatility rise with lots of stops being hit in the near term. Nothing aggravates long-term traders more than churning markets but, for the scalpers, it's like taking candy from a baby.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Like a deer in the headlights......

2006-02-28T05:02:00.000-08:00

The following comments were sent to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer for Marketwatch.com, at 8:00 AM EST.
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One thing that I'm seeing in a variety of markets (Stocks, metals, currencies, bonds) is higher volatility but little headway being made in either direction. The recent ranges have widened but the markets themselves are really just treading water. I'd feel a lot better if things were quiet for a period because that's usually a great indication that a breakout is ready to occur. But as it stands now, we could be going nowhere fast for the forseeable future and the metals complex could see the frustration level of the long-term players rise dramatically over the weeks to come. Gold's $40 range between $540 and $580 may be tough to break anytime soon. The range is just wide enough to put the market in oversold territory at the bottom and overbought at the top. So, I believe it's going to take some kind of extraordinary event to move this market out of it's "comfort zone". What could cause such a reaction? That's the $64,000 question. There are so many potential catalysts out there. That's why I keep recommending that any significant dip be bought in any of the metals because the potential for a move through resistance is so high considering the global tension that currently exists.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
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02/23/06 Precious metals comments

2006-02-23T04:20:00.000-08:00

The following was sent to Myra P. Saefong, Financial writer at Marketwatch.com, at 7:18 AM EST.

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Not a whole lot going on in the metals complex this morning. The rally that we've seen in the Gold market over the last few sessions seems to be fizzling out. With the near-term outlook turning ominous I won't be surprised to see us work back below the 2/14 low with $525 looking like a logical downside objective basis the April contract. This would, from a technical perspective, put the market in a position that it hasn't seen since early November/05, meaning the market would have to experience multiple closes below the 50-day MA which now stands at 545.50. If the market should break to that level I believe it will just be another attempt to drive the weaker longs from the market and, in turn, put the market back into an extreme oversold condition which would act as a springboard for the next leg up. I don't usually make wild predictions but I believe that Gold will break $600 by June 15th, which happens to be my 50th birthday. That would be a very nice present indeed.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

02/14/2006 Precious Metals comments

2006-02-14T05:09:00.000-08:00

The following comments were transmitted to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer at Marketwatch.com, at 8:03 AM EST.

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The overnight action in the Gold market has brought the April contract to the 50-day MA which now stands at 541.70. Back on 2/7, I wrote that I expected to see a test of the 50-day MA and we have now seen that test with April Gold touching 537.80. This very strong support area is holding for now and, with my proprietary oscillators now back in extreme oversold territory this may be an opportune time for those who have been waiting for this retracement to finally end. Only consecutive closes below the 50-day MA would compel me to rethink my position. The market also has successfully tested trendline support drawn from the Nov/Dec lows which is further evidence that this pullback may have finally run its course and the market could be poised to make a run at $600.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

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02/10/2006 - Precious Metals Comments

2006-02-10T04:43:00.000-08:00

The following comments were sent to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer for Marketwatch.com, at 7:38 AM EST.

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There is a very ominous scenario developing on the daily chart for the April Gold contract. The formation of a potential Head-and-Shoulders top is becoming more and more likely and this could mean trouble for the entire Precious metals complex. With the markets all currently in the loss column after being higher overnight, traders will be watching Gold very closely to see if this chart pattern develops further. Consecutive closes below 545.20, the low set on 1/19, would set the stage for a move all the way back down to the $500 level. Only a close above the contract high of 579.50 will break this pattern and turn the short-term trend back up.

The chart pattern in Silver isn't as well defined as the Gold chart but it too shows the beginnings of a potential top. The next few trading sessions should provide enough evidence for a potential trend reversal. Should Gold begin to see a major shift in sentiment then Silver will most likely follow suit. Support in March Silver lies at 8.75 and 8.25.

Copper's trend should remain positive for the near-term but consecutive closes below 2.24 would send up the caution flag in this market. This will be a good opportunity for Copper to break away from Gold and Silver and to follow its own path to new highs.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

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02/07/06 - Precious Metals Comments

2006-02-07T06:48:00.000-08:00

The following comments were sent to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer for Marketwatch.com, at 8:02 AM EST.

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The Precious metals complex has been on a tear right from the New year's opening day but it finally looks like we're in for a little bit of profit taking and a necessary retracement. It's always hard to guage exactly when a particular market will begin a normal retracement and, with the recent strength in the metals, making that call can be dangerous. The overall market trends remain intact but I won't be surprised to see a move in APR GOLD down to the 50-day MA (537.40) which is very strong chart support. This would put the market back in oversold territory while forcing the majority of small specs out of the market in the interim. This would probably set up the next leg that would finally see Gold testing that $600 resistance level.

MAR Silver has strong support at its 50-day MA which lies just above the $9.00 level and Copper, well, Copper is another story altogether. I've said many times that I believe Copper will continue to lead all of the metals, precious or base, and it continues to prove me right. Copper will most likely eclipse $3.00 before the market experiences any significant pullback. The fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment are all aligned for Copper and this market should continue to make new contract highs.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Precious metals softening is a good thing!

2006-01-17T05:05:00.000-08:00

The precious metals may finally be suffering from the rarified air that they find themselves in at this time. Frankly, it's time for the markets to give back some of the recent gains and, hopefully, that's what we'll see this week. After reaching new contract highs overnight the markets are finding little follow through in the pits and have now turned negative on the day. There's certainly no cause for alarm. The markets are overbought and a pullback from these levels is absolutely necessary in order for the trends to continue their upward paths. I won't be surprised to see FEB Gold slip back to around the $545 area before it launches its next leg up. MAR Silver will most likely test $9.00 and MAR Copper has strong support at $2.00. All in all, the markets have gotten off to a fast start in 2006 and those traders who aren't committed to the long-term trends will ultimately fuel the additional gains as they cover their long positions only to buy again later after they have concluded that their exit was premature.

Dale F. Doelling
Editor and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Gold running away.

2006-01-17T04:30:00.000-08:00

I had a recent conversation with a friend of mine regarding the Precious metals and Gold in particular. He asked me if it was too late to invest in Gold and I told him, flat out, that I thought the best was yet to come. I did say that the markets were overbought so I recommended the following strategy. Decide how much capital you are going to commit to Gold and invest 1/2 of that amount now in case the market ignores its overbought condition and continues along its merry way. Keep the other 1/2 available if 1) the market experiences a 5% retracement or 2) the market advances another 5%.

Now, here's what amateur investors do and I've seen this happen more often than not. Because I mentioned that the market was overbought, my friend decided to hold off on that first purchase because he wants to try to "buy the break". This is the old "Buy Low, Sell High" syndrome that most investors suffer from. His logic is flawed because the market may not experience a retracement, at least not anytime soon. So, my friend has missed out on the $20 rally that has occurred. Remember, trend followers NEVER try to " Buy low, Sell high". It rarely, if ever, happens. BUY strength, SELL weakness.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Gold's strong start

2006-01-17T04:26:00.000-08:00

The following comments were sent to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer with Marketwatch.com, on 1/12/06 at 8:43 AM.

On December 20th, 2005, the FEB GOLD futures reached a significantly oversold condition which led to the most recent rally of more than $60 from low to high. The market is now in a highly overbought condition which would lead me to believe that some short-term weakness may ensue. If I were an investor who's had his head in the sand for the last 3 years and was just starting to look at the precious metals markets to invest some of my capital, I might want to hold off on making my first purchase. For those of us who have been actively buying for some time now, I can only say "No worries, mate!" These trends have some serious "legs" to them and contain all the elements that trend followers look for when making trading decisions (Strong fundamentals, strong technicals, and strong investor sentiment). If the early going is any indication then 2006 is going to be a year of enormous returns for Precious metals investors and, I believe, the best is yet to come.

Dale F. Doelliing
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

More on the DOW

2006-01-09T07:47:00.000-08:00

The MAR DOW Futures are threatening to make a new high above 11010. Should that occur and the market closes above that level this afternoon, I'll COVER my two short positions at the open of the electronic market and stand on the sidelines temporarily. I believe that the US Stock markets are ripe for a serious setback but the markets don't always do what you'd like them to do. I will SELL the market again when we see a daily close below the previous week's low. More on that later.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

DOW Update

2006-01-04T07:12:00.000-08:00

Paul Tudor Jones would not approve (Losers average Losers!) but I added an additional SHORT position at 10905 in the MAR DOW futures. I agree with Mr. Jones in principle but I also believe that you'll rarely, if ever, sell the high tick. So, if my original plan is to be short two contracts, I'd rather SELL one and average in the other trade. Over my many years of trading I've found it to be an excellent risk management strategy.

I'm not going to place a physical STOP at this time but, if the market registers a close above the previous closing high of 11010, I'll exit the trade.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

SELL Stock index futures!

2006-01-04T06:40:00.000-08:00

The Stock market continues to confound the masses as it vacillates between support and resistance levels that have been in place for what seems like forever. I believe that the market's days are numbered and I'm willing to place a calculated bet here that the so-called "January Effect" is going to resemble the same effect that many experienced on New Year's Day. Can you spell "HANGOVER"? Yesterday's rally was way overdone and came on the assumption that the FED is close to done regarding interest rates hikes. WHO CARES?

I'm placing my bets early today. I'm already SHORT March Dow futures from 10880. I'm not interested in placing a protective stop just yet but I'll monitor the day's trading and update the blog later. Let's see how this trade plays out.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Happy New Year!

2006-01-03T15:28:00.000-08:00

The following comments were sent to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer at Marketwatch.com, at 9:21 AM EST.

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Happy New Year!

The Precious metals, with the exception of Copper, have jumped out of the starting box and look ready to run to new highs quickly. I believe that the number one investment for 2006 will be Gold and I like the way it's beginning the new trading year. As I've said previously, there's a lot of upside left in the entire metals complex and, as some of the financial uncertainties become more clear as we head into 2006, Gold is going to take the lead and achieve exceptional returns for traders who continue to focus on the long-term trends in these markets. Traders who exercise patience will be rewarded handsomely. I don't like to make predictions but I truly believe that new all-time highs will be achieved before this secular bull market in commodities, and specifically the Precious metals, finally runs its course.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
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Precious metals are the place to be!

2005-12-30T07:06:00.000-08:00

The following comments were sent to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer for Marketwatch. com, at 9:02 AM, CST:
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The year 2005 has provided us with some great markets and some great trends to trade. The Precious metals certainly rank at or near the top of that list. I believe that "we ain't seen nothin' yet". This year has just been a warmup for 2006. The Perfect (Financial) Storm is about to come raining down on us and the Precious metals will be the place to be in the coming year. Record high debt levels, both public and private, a housing debacle that is currently underway, the return of "Stagflation", and a sharply lower stock market will turn the Precious metals sharply higher and possibly to new all-time highs. I'm sorry to have to be such a "Grinch" on the last trading day of the year but I have to tell it as I see it. America's standard of living has been artificially supported for way too long and this has allowed the average consumer to spend like there's no tomorrow, using their homes like ATM machines. When the speculative froth begins to evaporate (it already has in some areas) the result is going to be too much for the economy to stand. We've been living high on the hog for too long and we're about to experience the flip side of our largesse. Markets go up and markets go down. Hold on to your Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium and Copper. These are the markets that will pay huge rewards and keep you out of harm's way in 2006.

Happy New Year!

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Precious metals brighten!

2005-12-27T05:55:00.000-08:00

With traders back from the Holiday break, it's looking more and more like the end of the year is going to be a good time for the Precious metals complex. Gold, having held support at the 50-day MA, is now attempting to close back above the 20-day MA at $510.40. Should this occur, expect a sharp rally as we head into week's end.

Silver's technical picture is even brighter as it closed just above its 20-day MA on Friday and only needs to close above the 12/19 high of $8.75 to provide the fuel necessary for its own year-end rally. Silver may just take the lead in powering the metals to a strong weekly close.

Copper becomes more "precious" every day and remains the most resilient and determined market in the entire metals complex. I've said previously that there's no ceiling to this market as the trend in Copper continues to advance. Friday's breakout to new contract highs was a very good sign that $2.50, basis the January contract, is the next target. I certainly wouldn't bet against it.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

My apologies

2005-12-15T05:14:00.000-08:00

I must offer my apology for not having updated the weblog recently. Due to circumstances beyond my control, I have been unable to keep up with my regular posts. I have added this item to my New Year's resolutions so, hopefully, I'll be more consistent in the New Year.

The following comments were transmitted to Myra Saefong, Financial Writer at Marketwatch.com, this morning at 8:11 AM EST.

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The daily chart on Gold is almost identical to the daily chart on the Dollar/Yen as both have taken a pounding the last 3 days. Obviously, traders are watching the $500 level very closely as Gold continues its decline. The Gold market is well known for these sharp retracements and it was just a matter of time before traders pounced on the opportunity to ambush the markets again. With volatility now reaching extreme levels I'm expecting the markets to quiet down somewhat as we head into the New Year. With the FEB GOLD contract testing the 20-day MA this morning we'll have to see how the market reacts to this first area of support. If Gold manages to hold here, then the market could just turn and make new highs before the year ends. Although the Precious metals markets have managed to come well off their extremely overbought condition, Gold could pull the entire metals complex lower if it manages to log consecutive closes below the $500 mark. If that were to happen, we could be in for an ugly end to, what so far has been, a stellar year for these markets.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

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Copper breaks $2.00!

2005-11-29T05:43:00.000-08:00

The DEC Copper contract finally broke and closed above that magical $2.00 level yesterday. Here are my comments that were transmitted to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer for Marketwatch.com. this morning:

Tuesday's Metals Comments:

With a slew of economic data set for release this morning traders may see volatility rise dramatically as some key resistance levels are being tested in the Precious metals markets. DEC GOLD broke through the $500 mark in overnight trading only to get a nosebleed and turn lower. This may only be a temporary setback on this first attempt to close above key resistance but traders will be watching the numbers set for release at 8:30 EST to determine which side of the market they want to be on for the short-term. While the short-term ride may get a little bumpy there's no denying that the Precious metals complex remains in a long-term bull market and significantly higher prices are on the horizon.

Silver has one last hurdle to overcome before it kicks into high gear and sprints to the $10.00 level. Once the weekly chart resistance at $8.50 is cleared this market could explode to the upside. I have been extremely bullish on this market as it has lagged Gold's performance for quite some time. The tide may have turned and I look for Silver to make up ground quickly.

Copper is now in never, never land as it reacts to prices above the $2.00 mark. As I've been saying for what seems like forever, this market was destined to crack $2.00 and, now that it has accomplished this feat, it will be interesting to see whether the trend in Copper can continue as it has for the last 4 years. The trend is your friend until it comes to an end. For now, there seems to be no end to the major trend in Copper.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Comments on the Copper market

2005-11-15T07:11:00.000-08:00

These comments were emailed to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer for Marketwatch.com, at 7:44 AM EST.

Last week, the DEC GOLD contract got a bit oversold and the market logged a string of advances in spite of the Dollar strength. But the market continues to struggle with overhead resistance as well as the Dollar's strength and, so far, has been unable to close above the $470 barrier. The daily chart suggest that the market is entering a fifth wave down which would eventually put the market somewhere south of the previous low at 456.10. Once this occurs, traders will have another tremendous buying opportunity as we head towards the New Year.

Silver continues to show resilience as it attempts to play "catch-up" with the Gold market. I'm not expecting anything spectacular from this market until Gold finally washes out and begins to rally but a retest of the $7.95 area is possible in the interim.

The trend in Copper remains positive as this market continues its march towards major psychological resistance at $2.00. Support lies just below the $1.86 level and, at least for now, the market doesn't look to be in any danger of testing that area of support. Should Copper break and close above $2.00, it would likely push prices to new highs and, in the process, bury those who are betting against this market.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Techncian
Trends In Commodities

I just received this email from Myra asking for my comments.

Chinese copper trader vanishes after $800M short sale: Times By Ciara LinnaneNEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A Chinese copper dealer has disappeared after selling an estimated $800 million of copper short, expecting the price to fall, the Times of London reported. Instead, the copper price has surged, setting a record $1.921 a pound on Monday. The Chinese State Reserve Bureau, where Liu Qibing worked, said the trader is on leave and that it had no knowledge of his dealing, the Times said. Concerns about the size of Liu's bet and his disappearance have raised concerns that the copper market is set for a trading scandal similar to the 1996 case in which a Japanese trader lost $2.6 billion for Sumitomo Corp.

My immediate response, with tongue planted firmly in cheek, is that this guy obviously has not been reading my comments on Copper. My only question is "How did this moron get put in a position to take such a position in the first place?" If anyone can give me a logical answer I'm all ears!

In case you're interested, it was the TREND FOLLOWERS who were BUYING while this guy was SELLING.

DOW Update

2005-11-10T08:33:00.000-08:00

I remain SHORT 60 $5 DOW Futures contracts at the open today. I have placed to Day orders for my account as I am still trying to pare back my exposure even though I am extremely bearish on the Stock Index futures. My new Day orders are as follows:

BUY 10 $5 DOW futures at 10537
BUY 10 $5 DOW futures at 10527

This would leave me SHORT 40 contracts and allow me a little more flexibility in my trades as we move forward.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Thursday's Metals comments

2005-11-10T04:42:00.000-08:00

The following Precious metals comments were transmitted to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer for Marketwatch.com, at 7:40 AM EST

Thursday's Metals comments

DEC GOLD is seeing some follow through from yesterday's rally but there's major trendline resistance which lies just above the current price that the market will have to overcome to turn the short-term trend positive again. Frankly, this rally leaves me unconvinced that we've seen the bottom of the recent decline. I believe that further price deterioration is inevitable and it will take consecutive closes above the 20-day MA (467.80) to change my opinion. We'll likely see the 20-day cross the 50-day MA in the next day or two and that would not bode well for Gold in the near-term.

Silver looks far more favorable technically and we may actually see a divergence between Gold and Silver where Silver is able to continue its upward momentum in the face of a continued decline in Gold. Considering that Silver has lagged Gold's performance by a large margin, a divergence in prices would not be surprising.

Copper continues to trade sideways and the longer this occurs the more traders will wonder if the market trend has entered the transition from up to down. It's way too early to speculate but the longer the market fails to make further gains the better the chance becomes that this market will suffer a serious setback.

Dale F. Doelliing
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Bonds may need more time to form a base.

2005-11-09T15:03:00.000-08:00

The Interest Rate futures reversed course today and finished sharply lower giving back most of the gains made on Tuesday. This does not bode well for me as I was a fairly aggressive buyer in the 10's and 30's but, considering the poor finish in the Stock Index futures today, I have to say that I'm willing to give this trade more time before I start to bail.

I traded the 10's and 30's pretty aggressively today and I'm under water in a big way. I'll need some help from stocks before the week ends or I'll have to reassess my position. I started buying the 10's first then I scaled in 4 trades in the 30's before buying more 10's. Here are the trades that I made today.

BOT 10 DEC 10 yr. Notes at 108-08
BOT 10 DEC 10 yr. Notes at 108-02 (Market closed at 107-27)

BOT 5 DEC 30 yr. Bonds at 111-20
BOT 5 DEC 30 yr. Bonds at 111-16
BOT 5 DEC 30 yr. Bonds at 111-12
BOT 5 DEC 30 yr. Bonds at 111-08 (Market closed at 110-27)

These trades leave me under water by $11,875.00 in the 30's and $6,875.00 in the 10's. This is a fairly large position for me and it could end up costing me some serious money but I'm confident that interest rates are ready to fall and that bond prices will rise. I'll exit my position in the in the 30's on a close below 110-00 and 107-16 in the 10's.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Testing resistance and selling into the rally

2005-11-09T12:37:00.000-08:00

The DOW futures made a new intraday high but backed off when word came from overseas that terrorist attacks had killed at least 18 people. The market turned down only briefly after the news but has now fought back to trade near 10600. I've entered two new DAY orders:

SELL 10 DEC $5 DOW at 10597
SELL 10 DEC $5 DOW at 10607

If filled I will have made two intraday trades today having bought 20 contracts earlier in the day 10547 and 10537. Will the market continue to squeeze the shorts? Stay tuned!

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

UPDATE at 6:00 PM EST- Neither of the orders listed above were filled

More on the DOW

2005-11-09T06:48:00.000-08:00

I entered 3 orders in the DOW this morning as there is a bias to lower prices but nothing really developing in the way of a washout in the Stock Index futures. I entered the following orders in the $5 DOW futures:

BUY 10 $5 DOW at 10547 (I was filled on this order and I am now SHORT 70 contracts.)
BUY 10 $5 DOW at 10537
BUY 10 $5 DOW at 10527

If all 3 orders are filled I will be SHORT 50 DEC $5 DOW and will hold for further profit.

I also SOLD 2 DEC GOLD at 465.10 and covered at 463.60 for $300 profit.

I have been buying some 10's and 30's in the Interest Rate futures and will update my position later.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities